Oil prices fell on Wednesday as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) left its global oil demand forecast unchanged from October in its monthly report and the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it no longer expects oil and gas demand to peak by 2030, instead rising through 2050.
The cartel continues to see oil demand increasing by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026.
Futures on West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F), the US benchmark, fell 1.3% to trade around $60 a barrel, while Brent crude (BZ=F), the global benchmark, traded at $64.
In a report on Wednesday, the IEA said that global oil and gas demand is likely to continue to grow through 2050. The agency sees oil demand rising to 105 million b/d in 2035 and 113 million b/d in 2050 under its “Current Policies Scenario,” which models current regulations.
Global oil demand was 100 million b/d in 2024, according to the report.
Previously, the IEA modeled for oil and gas demand to peak by 2035; however, slower adoption of green energy technologies and increasing use in emerging markets, the aviation and shipping sectors, and petrochemical feedstock drove the IEA to change its world energy demand outlook.
The IEA is currently modeling a glut of more than 4 million b/d in 2026 as the OPEC+ cartel has spent the past six months increasing production. However, sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producers, by the US Treasury Department have complicated those views, potentially tightening supply if barrels are taken off the market.
At the bloc’s November meeting, the OPEC+ member countries agreed to once again raise monthly production by 137,000 b/d in December, but the cartel said it will pause on any rate changes through the first quarter of the year in a signal the market read as a cautious read on oversupply.
The report comes as major nations meet in Brazil for the COP30 climate change summit.