The artificial intelligence (AI) giant has exceeded the analyst consensus earnings estimate in 19 of the lpast 21 quarters.
Nvidia (NVDA 3.62%) is slated to report its results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended Oct. 26) on Wednesday, Nov. 19, after the market close.
As the dominant supplier of artificial intelligence (AI) chips and related technology, Nvidia has seen its quarterly reports become the most anticipated of every earnings season for the past few years. Beyond being the largest AI company, Nvidia is also the most valuable company on the S&P 500 index. So it is considered a bellwether, or indicator, for the entire stock market, as well as the AI space.
This upcoming release comes at a particularly interesting time. Last week, Nvidia stock declined 7.2% on news that well-known hedge fund manager Michael Burry made big bearish bets (through buying put options) on Nvidia stock and fellow popular AI stock Palantir in the third quarter.
Burry’s bet against Nvidia will probably be a losing bet, in my opinion. Nvidia is performing fantastically — and is the company most responsible for enabling the AI revolution.
As in the last quarter, Nvidia’s Q3 results will not include any H20 data center AI chip sales to China. Given recent comments by CEO Jensen Huang, investors should not expect any changes on the China front.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia’s Q3 guidance and Wall Street’s estimates
| Metric | Q3 Fiscal 2025 Result | Nvidia’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 Guidance | Nvidia’s Projected Growth | Wall Street’s Q3 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street’s Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $35.08 billion | $54 billion | 54% | $54.83 billion | 56% |
| Adjusted (non-GAAP) earnings per share (EPS) | $0.81 | $1.22* | 51% | $1.25 | 54% |
Wall Street’s estimates for fiscal Q4 guidance
Often, a company’s guidance (relative to Wall Street’s expectations) can affect the stock price following an earnings release at least as much as the results for the current quarter.
That said, following are the analyst consensus estimates for Nvidia’s fiscal fourth quarter, which will end in late January 2026.
| Metric | Q4 Fiscal 2025 Result | Wall Street’s Q4 Fiscal 2026 Consensus Estimate | Wall Street’s Projected Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $39.3 billion | $61.33 billion | 56% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.89 | $1.42 | 59% |
Today’s Change
(-3.62%) $-7.01
Current Price
$186.79
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$4541B
Day’s Range
$183.85 – $191.42
52wk Range
$86.62 – $212.19
Volume
91K
Avg Vol
183M
Gross Margin
69.85%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
Nvidia’s great “earnings beat” track record
Nvidia has an excellent track record of surpassing Wall Street’s earnings estimates. I believe it will do so again on Nov. 19.
Following is data for the past 21 quarters, or just over five years. I also broke out the results of the past four quarters to show that the earnings beats have been a bit smaller recently. In my opinion, this is not a cause for concern. I believe the primary reason for this dynamic is that Nvidia’s management has recently been more effective at projecting guidance, and Wall Street uses this guidance as a basis for its estimates.
| Period | Earnings* Results Relative to Wall Street’s Consensus Estimate | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Average) | Magnitude of Earnings Beat (Range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 21 reported quarters | 19/21 beats = 90.5% |
10%** |
4% to 32%** |
|
Most recently reported four quarters |
4/4 beats = 100% | 6.5% | 4.1% to 8.5% |
Data source: Nvidia. Calculations by author. *Earnings in the form of adjusted earnings per share (EPS). **Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock’s movements following earnings releases
Long-term investors should focus on Nvidia’s results, rather than the stock price movement after the release. Guidance and overall market dynamics typically play significant roles in a stock’s post-earnings-release performance.
The following data shows the magnitude of Nvidia’s earnings beat and the stock price movement on the day following the release for the prior 10 quarters. Why 10? Consider this period the “Generative AI Era.” Nvidia has reported 10 quarters since generative AI began significantly boosting its data center platform’s results in early 2023. Generative AI first wowed many consumers and tech leaders alike when OpenAI released its ChatGPT chatbot in November 2022.
| Quarter | Period Ending | Magnitude of Earnings Beat/(Miss)* | Stock Price Change Day After Earnings Release |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 fiscal 2026 | Late July 2025 | 4% | (0.8%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2026 | Late April 2025 | 8% | 3.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2025 | Late January 2025 | 5% | (8.5%) |
| Q3 fiscal 2025 | Late October 2024 | 9% | 0.5% |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2024 | 6% | (6.4%) |
| Q1 fiscal 2025 | Late April 2024 | 10% | 9.3% |
| Q4 fiscal 2024 | Late January 2024 | 12% | 16.4% |
| Q3 fiscal 2024 | Late October 2023 | 19% |
(2.5%) |
| Q2 fiscal 2024 | Late July 2023 | 32% |
0.1% |
| Q1 fiscal 2024 | Late April 2023 | 18% |
24.4% |
Data sources: Nvidia’s earnings reports, Yahoo! Finance, and YCharts. *Rounded to the nearest whole number.
Nvidia stock didn’t rise every time the company beat Wall Street’s earnings estimate, as the chart shows. Guidance and overall market dynamics nearly always play big roles in a stock’s performance following an earnings release.
There can also be other factors. Take Nvidia’s most recent quarterly release, fiscal Q2. The quarter’s revenue and earnings exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, as did the top and bottom lines for Q3 guidance. Nonetheless, the stock edged down slightly. That was likely due to investors’ concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the China data center AI chip situation at that time.
Focus on data in the earnings release, not the market’s immediate reaction
In short, long-term investors should focus on the data in the earnings release, rather than the market’s immediate reaction. Over the short term, there can sometimes be a disconnect between a company’s financial results and its stock price. However, as long as Nvidia continues to deliver strong results and guidance, its stock price is likely to rise over the long term.