Biden leads Trump narrowly in Florida on eve of election - Reuters/Ipsos poll

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Democrat Joe Biden appeared to take a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Florida in the final days of the 2020 U.S. election campaign, with the two candidates locked in a dead heat in North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls released on Monday.

FILE PHOTO: Democratic U.S. presidential nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Get Out The Vote event in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., November 2, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

A week earlier, Reuters/Ipsos polls showed Trump and Biden in a statistical tie across the three states.

A final Reuters/Ipsos national poll showed Biden with an outright majority among all likely voters: 52% said they were backing the Democratic nominee while 44% said they were voting for the Republican Trump.

The national poll, conducted from Oct. 29 to Nov. 2, gathered responses from 1,333 adults, including 914 likely voters. The national poll has a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

Reuters/Ipsos also polled likely voters in six states – Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – that will play critical roles in deciding whether Trump wins a second term in office or if Biden ousts him.

Below is a state-by-state look at Reuters/Ipsos findings, based on the online responses of likely voters:

FLORIDA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1)

* Voting for Biden: 50%

* Voting for Trump: 46%

* A prior poll showed Biden leading Trump 49%-47%, effectively a tie because the margin was within the poll’s credibility interval.

* 41% said they already had voted.

* 47% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 44% said Trump would be better.

* 53% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

ARIZONA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):

* Voting for Biden: 49%

* Voting for Trump: 47%

* The two are statistically tied as the margin is within the survey’s credibility interval.

* A prior poll also showed a statistically even race, with 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump.

* 49% said they already had voted.

* 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 41% said Trump would be better.

* 52% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 42% said Biden would be better.

NORTH CAROLINA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):

* Voting for Biden: 49%

* Voting for Trump: 48%

* Since the margin is within the poll’s credibility interval, the race is statistically tied, as it was in the prior poll when Biden had 49% to Trump’s 48%.

* 43% said they already had voted.

* 49% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 43% said Trump would be better.

* 51% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 43% said Biden would be better.

MICHIGAN (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):

* Voting for Biden: 52%

* Voting for Trump: 42%

* Biden was up 52%-43% the prior week.

* 37% of adults said they already had voted.

* 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.

* 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 44% said Biden would be better.

WISCONSIN (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):

* Voting for Biden: 53%

* Voting for Trump: 43%

* Biden was up 53%-44% the prior week.

* 41% of adults said they already had voted.

* 52% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 38% said Trump would be better.

* 47% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 45% said Biden would be better.

PENNSYLVANIA (Oct. 27 – Nov. 1):

* Voting for Biden: 51%

* Voting for Trump: 44%

* Biden was up 50%-45% the prior week.

* 25% of adults said they already had voted.

* 51% said Biden would be better at handling the coronavirus pandemic. 40% said Trump would be better.

* 48% said Trump would be better at managing the economy. 46% said Biden would be better.

NOTES

The Reuters/Ipsos opinion polls are conducted online in all six states in English, as well as in Spanish in Arizona and Florida.

* In Florida, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,011 adults, including 670 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

* In Arizona, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 989 adults, including 610 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 5 percentage points.

* In North Carolina, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,009 adults, including 707 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

* In Michigan, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 654 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

* In Wisconsin, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,007 adults, including 696 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

* In Pennsylvania, from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, it gathered responses from 1,006 adults, including 673 likely voters, and had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points.

Reporting by Jason Lange and Chris Kahn; Editing by Howard Goller