Investing in stocks comes with the risk that the share price will fall. Anyone who held Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) over the last year knows what a loser feels like. To wit the share price is down 63% in that time. Even if you look out three years, the returns are still disappointing, with the share price down47% in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 52% in the last three months.
With that in mind, it’s worth seeing if the company’s underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
To quote Buffett, ‘Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace…’ One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Even though the Netflix share price is down over the year, its EPS actually improved. It’s quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
It’s surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it’s easy to justify a look at some other metrics.
Netflix’s revenue is actually up 15% over the last year. Since the fundamental metrics don’t readily explain the share price drop, there might be an opportunity if the market has overreacted.
You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. If you are thinking of buying or selling Netflix stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Netflix shareholders are down 63% for the year. Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 12%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 3% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We’ve spotted 3 warning signs for Netflix you should be aware of, and 2 of them are significant.
Netflix is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.