Is US economy in recession? Here is what Joe Biden has to say

US recession news 2022: US President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that he did not anticipate a recession, but if one did occur, it would be ‘very slight’. “I don’t think there will be a recession. If it is, it will be a very slight recession. That is, we will move down slightly,” he said in an interview with CNN.

Why it matters: Although there is no single definition for what constitutes a recession, researchers generally agree that it occurs when real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declines for two consecutive quarters. Typically, it has an effect on the economic output, consumer demand and employment.

Biden made the comment at a time when the ruling Democrats have a short window of time to reassure Americans that the economy is still strong with less than 30 days until the midterm elections.

What others saying: In an interview with CNBC on Monday, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, said, “These are very, very serious things that I think are likely to push the US and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession  and they’re likely to put the US in some form of recession six to nine months from now.”

Moreover, the IMF drastically reduced the growth prediction for the United States this year from 3.4 per cent in April to 2.3 percent in its most recent update to the World Economic Outlook. Even a “small shock” could push the US economy into a recession, according to IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

Why is it a concern: The current yield curve inversion, the yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes surged above the rate on 10-year Treasury notes, is the deepest since 2007. In the past, inverted yield curves have been a reliable predictor of economic recession. The U.S. economy has typically entered a recession two-thirds of the time within 18 months of a yield curve inversion.

But, but, but: Even when analysts have forewarned of a downturn, Joe Biden has always maintained that he doesn’t predict a recession. He continued to promote the economy while stating the AP in June that a recession was “not inevitable.” A month later, he asserted, noting the low unemployment rate, “We’re not going to be in a recession.” Since that time, the Federal Reserve and other significant central banks have increased interest rates to combat the inflationary crisis. The rate hikes may impede growth of the economy too much and cause a recession. And India is not immune to USA recession and will face spillover consequences from it.
 

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