6 January 2026 – The global economy showed notable resilience in 2025, performing better than anticipated despite repeated shocks and heightened uncertainty. Trade flows continued to expand, and overall activity held up more strongly than many expected. The key question now is whether this resilience will persist into 2026. The World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report — to be released on 8 January 2026 — offers some early answers. Here are five main points to know:
1. Global economic growth remains stable but subdued. The world economy is projected to grow at a modest pace. Subdued investment, high debt burdens, and limited fiscal space continue to constrain countries’ capacity to boost productivity and achieve stronger, sustained growth. Geopolitical tensions and financial risks add to these pressures, leaving the global outlook fragile.
2. Expansion is steady but uneven across countries. Developed economies are projected to maintain broadly stable yet moderate growth. Several large developing economies are expected to sustain growth momentum, supported by resilient domestic demand or targeted policies. For vulnerable countries, however, the outlook remains challenging, as limited economic diversification, climate-related shocks, and high debt levels continue to weigh on prospects.
3. Trade tensions have intensified but global impacts remain contained. A sharp increase in United States tariffs in 2025 introduced new trade frictions and unsettled the global trade environment. However, overall disruption to trade flows has thus far been limited. Bilateral deals between the United States and key trading partners helped prevent a broader escalation of tensions. Front-loaded shipments boosted activity early in the year, but this temporary momentum is expected to fade in 2026.
4. Global inflation is cooling, though risks are still present. Disinflation is likely to continue through 2026, allowing central banks to gradually ease monetary conditions. However, potential supply‑side shocks— stemming from conflicts, geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions or climate‑related events — could still reignite inflationary pressures.
5. Artificial intelligence offers promise for productivity, but uncertainty remains. Advances in artificial intelligence could boost productivity growth, but the scale and timing of gains remain highly uncertain. Benefits are likely to be unevenly distributed, possibly deepening existing inequalities. While AI is already enhancing efficiency and innovation in some sectors, its broader impact will depend on investments in skills, digital infrastructure, and policies that enable inclusive and responsible adoption.
Follow the launch live on 8 January 2026 at 12:45 pm EST via UN Web TV and access the complete report and all the latest data on UN DESA’s website.