The United Kingdom’s economy will grow faster than the economies of Germany, Italy, and Japan during 2024, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, has predicted.
In an optimistic assessment likely to please the UK’s new Labour Party government, the Paris-based organization said it expects the UK economy to be the joint-second fastest-growing among G7 nations. It had previously predicted the UK would have the weakest growth within the bloc.
In its latest twice-yearly global economic outlook, the OECD predicted the UK economy will grow by 1.1 percent during 2024, which is the same as it expects for Canada and France and behind only the United States among G7 members.
The outlook was much improved on its prediction in May that the UK economy would expand by just 0.4 percent this year. The upgrade, it said, was largely down to rising wages and a lower rate of inflation, which had stimulated consumer spending.
The OECD said it believes the UK economy will continue to enjoy “robust” growth, with it expanding another 1.2 percent during 2025.
Alvaro Pereira, the OECD’s chief economist, said the UK bounced back well from last year’s recession, but he urged the country, and many other European nations, to restrict their national debts if they want continued prosperity.
“The bigger the debt, the bigger the amount is needed to pay interest bills… This will mean there is less money to spend on health, education, and things like promoting growth,” The Guardian newspaper quoted him as saying.
The BBC said he also cautioned against a reintroduction of “draconian austerity” measures but a prioritization of “fiscal prudence”.
The OECD added that the UK will likely have the highest rate of inflation among G7 nations during 2024, finishing the year with a rate of 2.7 percent and likely seeing 2.4 percent during 2025.
Reuters noted that several other organizations, including the Bank of England, have also recently upgraded their assessments of the UK economy.
The UK’s finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves, responded by saying: “Faster economic growth figures are welcomed, but I know there is more to do and that is why economic growth is the number one mission of this government. Next month’s budget will be about fixing the foundations, so we can deliver on the promise of change and rebuild Britain.”
In more general terms, the OECD said the global economy seems to be “turning a corner” and returning to full health following setbacks attributed to the novel coronavirus pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The think tank said the main reason why the global economy is returning to health faster than it previously predicted was the fact that shipping companies had found ways to send freight between Asia and Europe without using the terrorism-impacted Red Sea.