OECD warns tariffs, AI will test resilience of the global economy

The organisation warns that President Donald Trump has put US fiscal policy on an unsustainable trajectory.

Global growth is holding up better than expected as an artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom helps offset some of the shock from United States tariff hikes, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

The Paris-based organisation, however, warned on Tuesday that global growth was vulnerable to any new outbreak of trade tensions, while investor optimism about AI could trigger a stock market correction if expectations are not met.

In its Economic Outlook, the OECD forecast global growth would slow modestly from 3.2 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026, leaving its forecasts untouched from its last estimates in September. It predicted a rebound to 3.1 percent in 2027.

OECD head Mathias Cormann said the trade shocks triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes had so far proved relatively mild, but added their costs were likely to rise.

“The full effects of those higher tariffs since the start of the year will become clearer as firms run down the inventories that they built up,” he told a press conference.

The US economy is forecast to grow 2 percent in 2025, revised up from 1.8 percent in September, before slowing to 1.7 percent in 2026, up from 1.5 percent predicted in September.

AI investment, fiscal support and expected US Federal Reserve rate cuts are helping offset the drag from tariffs on imported goods, reduced immigration and federal job cuts, the OECD said.

However, it warned that the Trump administration had put US fiscal policy on an unsustainable trajectory, with large budget deficits and rising debt that would require a “significant adjustment” in the coming years.

Global trade growth to slow

China’s growth is expected to hold steady at 5 percent in 2025, up from 4.9 percent in September, before slowing to 4.4 percent in 2026 – unchanged from September – as fiscal support fades and as new US tariffs on goods imported from China bite.

The eurozone’s 2025 growth forecast was revised up to 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, supported by resilient labour markets and increased public spending in Germany. Growth is expected to moderate to 1.2 percent in 2026 – it was seen at 1 percent previously – as budget tightening in France and Italy weighs on the outlook.

Japan’s economy is projected to grow 1.3 percent in 2025, up from 1.1 percent, and buoyed by strong corporate earnings and investment, before slowing to 0.9 percent in 2026.

Global trade growth is expected to moderate from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 2.3 percent in 2026 as the full effects of tariffs weigh on investment and consumption. Elevated trade policy uncertainty limits prospects for a recovery.

Inflation is projected to gradually return to central bank targets by mid-2027 in most major economies. In the US, inflation is expected to peak in mid-2026 due to tariff pass-through before easing. In China and some emerging markets, inflation is projected to rise modestly as excess production capacity declines.

Most major central banks are expected to maintain or lower borrowing costs over the coming year as inflation pressures ease. The US Federal Reserve is projected to cut rates slightly by the end of 2026, barring inflation surprises from tariffs.