UNITED NATIONS — The United Nations is forecasting that the global economy will grow by 2.7 percent this year, slightly lower than last year’s estimate, citing the impact of higher US tariffs, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
UN economists predicted that growth would edge up to 2.9 percent in 2027. That’s still well below the average 3.2-percent growth between 2010 and 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic hurt economies around the globe. The estimate for 2025 is 2.8 percent.
“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is reshaping the global landscape,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Thursday in a statement, “generating new economic uncertainty and social vulnerabilities.”
But the UN economists said there was “unexpected resilience” to the sharp increases in US tariffs last year. This was supported by solid consumer spending and easing inflation, which helped sustain growth, but they cautioned that underlying weaknesses persist.
According to the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report, growth in Europe, Japan and the United States is projected to hold broadly steady.
In the United States, the UN said growth declined from 2.8 percent in 2024 to an estimated 1.9 percent in 2025, “as strong consumer spending and AI-related investment were partly offset by weak residential and commercial construction.”
The UN projected a very small rise in US economic growth this year to 2 percent, and it forecast that growth would edge up to 2.2 percent in 2027.
Japan’s economy is forecast to grow by 0.9 percent this year and by 1 percent in 2027 — below the 1.2-percent growth estimated for 2025, the UN said.
“Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, while exports — particularly of automobiles — will likely remain constrained by higher United States tariffs and policy uncertainty,” the economists said of Japan.
The European Union’s economic growth is forecast to decline from 1.5 percent in 2025 to 1.4 percent in 2026 “as higher US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports,” the report said. But it projected growth would increase to 1.6 percent in 2027.
On a more positive note, the UN said some large developing economies, including China, India and Indonesia, were expected to continue to see solid growth.
Prospects for many low-income and vulnerable countries are expected to remain less favorable, the economists said, though they projected growth in the world’s least developed countries will rise from an estimated 3.9 percent in 2025 to 4.6 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027. They singled out stronger economic performances in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Tanzania.
In East Asia, the UN said, economic growth is projected at 4.4 percent this year, down from 4.9 percent last year. China’s economy, the world’s second largest, is forecast to grow by 4.6 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, below the estimated 4.9-percent expansion in 2025.
“A temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States — including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce — has helped stabilize confidence,” it said.
In Africa, modest economic growth is projected, from an estimated 3.9 percent in 2025 to 4 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, the report said. “However, high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks,” it said.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, while “the outlook remains broadly resilient,” growth is projected to decline slightly from an estimated 2.4 percent in 2025 to 2.3 percent in 2026 before edging up to 2.5 percent in 2027.