Where are the ‘choke points’ in global trade – and can they be overcome?

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While this year has been a watershed for global trade – with the first half of 2025 bringing with it a US$500 billion expansion in value, according to UN Trade and Development – many countries are forging new economic pathways in response to rapid, unpredictable shifts in geopolitics, heightened protectionism and extreme weather events influenced by climate change.

In a recent report from Allianz Trade, the insurer predicted that in 2026 and 2027, the year-on-year global growth of trade of goods and services is set to slow to 0.6 per cent and 1.8 per cent, respectively – a decline compared with the 2 per cent observed for 2025 so far – highlighting the delayed impact of the trade war and the limitations of current trade infrastructure.

In this explainer, the Post examines these “legacy” trade routes, their choke points and what new routes could bypass or surmount them, based on the Allianz analysis released last week.

What are the choke points in global trade routes?

Among the old routes – which carry 50 to 60 per cent of the global merchandise trade, according to Allianz – the Suez and Panama canals top the list of high-risk choke points, constrained by congestion and limited redundancy, according to a proprietary scorecard provided in the report.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, oil prices were the main driver of container freight rates, said Ana Boata, the head of economic research at Allianz and lead analyst for the report, but now geopolitics is taking primacy.

“Asia and Europe’s hubs are increasingly at risk of political or climate shocks – Asian hubs lead on capacity and reliability but face mounting political risk; Europe’s ports boast strong infrastructure and redundancy but rising climate exposure, particularly in the south,” she added.

“Midway hubs, from the Middle East to Southern Africa, act as efficiency anchors yet remain vulnerable to political and environmental stress. In the Americas, reliability is high, but capacity tightens along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.”

Global trade depends on a limited number of strategic corridors and choke points, which are narrow passages or logistical hubs that concentrate flows of energy, food and manufactured goods, such as the Suez and Panama Canals, air freight hubs like Hong Kong International Airport and inland connectors linking ports, railways and roads.