The federal government will release December’s unemployment rate and payroll changes Friday morning, helping to make sense of a cooling labor market that has flashed some mixed signals this week.
Read more: Worried about job security? Take these 5 steps to protect your finances.
A Bloomberg survey of economists estimates a median gain of 70,000 jobs in the final jobs report for 2025 and an unemployment rate of 4.5% after November’s data showed an addition of 64,000 positions and jobless rate of 4.6%. The Chicago Fed, meanwhile, sees the unemployment rate holding steady.
Questions are swirling about the state of the US job market as economists and workers alike grapple with a weak hiring rate and paltry job gains, but relatively low layoffs in what’s been described as a “no-hire, no-fire” economy. And Americans are feeling burdened by it: Consumers’ “perceived probability” of quickly landing work within three months of losing a job hit a record low in December, according to a New York Fed survey.
The monthly jobs report, it’s worth noting, is only just getting back on track after last fall’s shutdown-induced delays.
But this week’s private data releases offered some slight reassurances in a landscape where market watchers are scrounging for any evidence of change. Layoff announcements for December, for example, amounted to the lowest monthly total since July 2024, according to the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. And private payroll data from ADP showed a gain of 41,000 new positions for December.
The Bank of America Institute also said this week that estimates based on its internal data show year-over-year payroll growth recovered in December, possibly suggesting “the worst of the slowdown is behind us.”
Jobless claims, meanwhile, rose slightly less than economists had expected last week.
Emma Ockerman is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com.
Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance