Dear Investor,
The markets are closed for Good Friday—but not even a holiday can pause what’s unfolding on the charts. The Dow is about to log its first death cross since 2023, and while that might sound like pure coincidence, smart traders know better. Technical signals like this don’t wait for sentiment. They show up when structure breaks down. And in this case, the timing is more than symbolic. Let’s dig in.
The Death Cross Isn’t Doom—It’s a Signal
Technically speaking, a death cross is when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day. It’s a lagging indicator, yes. But that’s what makes it potent in this environment. Price has been fading for weeks, and while internals haven’t collapsed, they’re starting to fray. The good news? This setup tends to precede periods of choppy reaccumulation—not immediate crashes. But with passive flows pulling back and liquidity tightening, chop itself can become dangerous.
🔹 Actionable Takeaway: Use the death cross as a wake-up call, not a doomsday countdown. Adjust risk accordingly—especially in crowded, beta-heavy names.
Economists Aren’t Screaming Yet—But They’re Watching
If you want to know when recession risk is real, don’t listen to forecasts—watch what the pros are tracking. Lending standards. Jobless claims revisions. Trucking volumes. Right now, they’re all sending cautious signals. Not catastrophic, but definitely shifting. The data isn’t flashing red yet—but it’s no longer green. It’s amber. And when macro goes amber, smart positioning wins.
🔹 Actionable Takeaway: Recession isn’t a moment—it’s a drift. If you’re still positioned for perfection, it might be time to dial that down.
Volatility Loves a Vacuum—And We Just Created One
With markets closed, VIX elevated, and headlines cooling off, this weekend is a setup for false calm. And that’s when volatility often rears back. Traders are quietly rotating into high-dividend ETFs like VYM, gold-focused funds, and short-duration instruments such as SHV. Not because they’re scared—but because they’re serious. The goal isn’t to run away—it’s to reposition smartly.
🔹 Actionable Takeaway: Holidays don’t stop repositioning. Take the calm for what it is: a gift to adjust before the next real move.
The Rise of the Resilient Portfolio
Permanent portfolio strategies are back in vogue—and for good reason. Gold, cash, bonds, equities in equal parts. It sounds boring, but in a regime this noisy, boring is beautiful. Strategists aren’t chasing AI tickers or meme squeezes—they’re loading balance. That tells you everything you need to know.
🔹 Actionable Takeaway: In high-noise markets, low-drama strategies outperform. Balance isn’t just for portfolios—it’s for mindsets too.
Jim’s Market Recap
We’re entering Q2 with warning signs mounting and volatility elevated. The fact that the Dow is about to log a death cross on Good Friday feels poetic—but it’s also practical. Sentiment is stretched, defensive flows are rising, and the signals traders used to ignore are now impossible to overlook.
This isn’t a panic moment—it’s a pivot moment. Whether you’re reallocating into lower-beta names, hedging out excess, or building around balance, the point is this: structure matters again. And when structure matters, narrative loses power. Good Friday or not, the signals are speaking. Time to listen.
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To your success, |