Netflix (NFLX) is set to report first quarter earnings after the bell on Thursday with the company sitting as one of the best-positioned Big Tech names amid an uncertain economic environment dominated by President Trump’s trade war.
“Amid recent market volatility, Netflix’s strong subscription model with critical entertainment (which historically has performed well in a recession) has made the stock a defensive choice for investors,” Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote on Tuesday.
Netflix stock rose over 1% in premarket trading on Thursday and has been up 9% this year, a standout when measured against year-to-date declines of 17% or more for its larger tech peers, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL). The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is off about 9% in 2025.
Here’s what Wall Street expects for the first quarter, according to Bloomberg consensus estimates.
961.63
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(-1.50%)
At close: April 16 at 4:00:00 PM EDT
NFLX GOOG AMZN
This will also be Netflix’s first report that no longer reports subscriber numbers as the company focuses on driving greater engagement and top-line growth. At the end of 2024, the company had 301.6 million global subscribers. Netflix said in its fourth quarter shareholder letter it will disclose subscriber data in the future “as we cross key milestones.”
“Netflix has won the streaming wars. Case closed,” MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote in a client note last month. “Because [Netflix] has more content, it drives better engagement, leading to more subscribers and possibly better pricing power in a virtuous cycle.”
According to the Wall Street Journal, Netflix is targeting lofty financial goals, which include doubling its revenue by 2030 and reaching a valuation of $1 trillion. The streamer’s market cap is currently just north of $400 billion.
“To the extent the company sees a runway for continued strong subscriber growth, we think it should give investors confidence in Netflix’s ability to grow over the next several years,” BofA’s Reif Ehrlich said in reaction to the Journal report. The analyst maintained a Buy rating and a $1,175 price target on shares.
In 2024, Netflix posted a record-breaking year, which included revenue growth of 16% as operating margins surged 600 basis points to nearly 27%, about 300 basis points higher than its guidance at the outset of the year.
The company added 41 million global subscribers last year, above the 36.6 million it added during the COVID-induced surge of 2020.
Password-sharing crackdowns helped aid those subscriber figures, and although the benefits of those crackdowns are expected to slow in the near term, the company expects subscriber upside from its content slate, with its ad tier serving as a longer-term catalyst for capturing new users.
Earlier this year, the company raised subscription prices across its various streaming tiers in the US, including the ad plan, which still remains one of the cheapest tiers on the market at $7.99 per month.
Management said it decided to raise prices, as its content “has never been better,” with more movies and TV shows expected throughout 2025. Several key franchises are expected to return later this year, including “Stranger Things,” “Squid Game,” and “Wednesday.”
Sports and live events have also become staples within the Netflix ecosystem following the success of the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson match, NFL Christmas Day games, and the recent debut of WWE Raw. Rumors have swirled the company could bid on UFC rights next.
Wall Street analysts who cover Netflix have a median price target of just around $1,085 a share, with 45 Buy ratings, 13 Holds, and just two Sells, according to the latest Bloomberg data.
Alexandra Canal is a Senior Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @allie_canal, LinkedIn, and email her at alexandra.canal@yahoofinance.com.
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