Over the past couple of weeks, market sentiment has swung wildly, with the global tariff war and other macroeconomic factors pulling the rug from under the Nifty50. But if you have been keeping an eye on the index, you have seen quite the rollercoaster ride.
From a strong rally in March 2025, where the Nifty50 surged from 21,964 to 23,869, to an abrupt plunge that saw it hit a 10-month low following Donald Trump’s tariff hikes, it’s been a rough ride for traders and investors.
Now, as April unfolds, volatility has been the name of the game, with Nifty shifting from its low of 21,743 to levels above 23,400. This sharp movement has sparked a lot of chatter—especially among traders and investors who are caught in the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) zone. The index has bounced back about 8% from the lows, but the real question remains – Is this the bottom, or are we in for more turbulence?
Let’s analyse the Nifty50 chart and try to determine whether we have hit the bottom or if there’s more pain to endure.
Nifty Weekly Chart
When analysing market trends, the 52-week low typically marks a negative sentiment. The Nifty has just missed the 52-week low by a mere 2%. Does that define the bearish trend?
We have a different strategy focusing on the 62-week low, a metric that has only been tested four times in the last 20 years. You might be wondering why 62 weeks? Here’s the catch – 62 is a Fibonacci number, a golden ratio —a crucial time frame that often marks major trend reversals. It’s no surprise that this number is significant in technical analysis, especially when looking at long-term trends.
To visualise this, we have added a 62-week Donchian Channel to the chart. The Donchian Channel is a great tool to capture the high and low range over a specified period, and when the price moves above the middle or average line of the channel, it’s often seen as confirmation that the bulls are back.
Looking at the Nifty50’s recent low of 21,743, we find that the 62-week low is placed at 21,281, and the middle line of the Donchian Channel sits at 23,779. For the bulls to truly take control, Nifty needs to close above the 23,800 mark. This would be the confirmation we are waiting for that the potential bottom is indeed in place.
Adding fuel to the fire, last week’s candle formed a Bullish Belt Hold pattern—a classic bullish reversal pattern that indicates the previous gap-down was aggressively bought, signalling strong buying interest from smart investors.
So, we are on the edge of our seats, waiting for that Nifty close above 23,800 to confirm whether the bottom is in place. But before jumping in with both feet, let’s take a moment to discuss a strategy that could help you navigate the potential rally and add quality stocks to your watchlist.
The strategy we are using here is a multi-timeframe strategy, which combines the daily, weekly, and monthly charts to find stocks with the strongest momentum and trend. Here’s how we select these stocks:
- Golden Cross: The stock should have formed a golden cross on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts. This means the stock’s short-term moving averages (like the 50-period) have crossed above its long-term moving averages (like the 200-period), signalling bullish potential across all timeframes.
- RSI above 60: The stock should have an RSI (Relative Strength Index) above 60 on all three timeframes—daily, weekly, and monthly. This indicates strong momentum and an ongoing uptrend.
With this strategy, we have identified 10 stocks from the Nifty500 index currently looking strong and should be on your radar. These stocks have managed to pass both the Golden Cross and RSI criteria across multiple timeframes, making them solid candidates for further gains as the Nifty50 attempts to confirm a bottom.
Here’s the list of 10 potential stocks to consider, based on our multi-timeframe strategy:
Are We Really at the Bottom?
While the technical indicators are starting to align, the market is still in a phase of high uncertainty. The tariff war, global cues, and domestic factors like inflation and interest rates will continue to shape the outlook for the Nifty50. The current bounce and bullish reversal candlestick pattern could suggest that the potential bottom is near.
The key to making the most of these volatile times is to remain cautious yet opportunistic. Keep an eye on the 23,800 mark on Nifty and monitor the selected stocks for further signs of strength. If the bulls are indeed back in the game, these stocks could see strong gains in the upcoming weeks.
So, while the market might still be testing the waters, the smart money is already positioning itself for a potential upside. Is the bottom in? Time will tell, but with these stocks on your watchlist, you will be prepared for what’s ahead.
Disclaimer
Note: We have relied on data from http://www.definedgesecurities.com throughout this article. Only in cases where the data was unavailable have we used an alternate but widely used and accepted source of information.
The purpose of this article is only to share interesting charts, data points and thought-provoking opinions. It is NOT a recommendation. If you wish to consider an investment, you are strongly advised to consult your advisor. This article is strictly for educative purposes only.
Brijesh Bhatia has over 18 years of experience in India’s financial markets as a trader and technical analyst. He has worked with UTI, Asit C Mehta, and Edelweiss Securities. Presently, he is an analyst at Definedge.
Disclosure: The writer and his dependents do not hold the Stocks discussed in this article. However, clients of Definedge may or may not own these securities.
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