Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. Traders are expecting a modest post-earnings move from the stock, which has fallen so far this year.
Options pricing suggests traders are positioning for AMD stock to move nearly 8% in the days after it reports. An 8% jump off Monday’s closing price would put the stock at about $108.50, its highest price since late March, and an 8% decline would put it around $92.50, erasing all of the stock’s gains from the last week.
A move of that magnitude—in either direction—would be about in line with AMD’s average post-earnings swing over the past four quarters, which comes out to 7.5%. The stock tumbled more than 6% the day after its fourth-quarter data center revenue, which rose 69% from the prior year, fell short of expectations in February. Shares dropped more than 10% on AMD’s disappointing earnings report in October.
Analysts expect AMD to report first-quarter data center revenue rose 55% to $3.6 billion, driving total sales growth of 30%. Adjusted earnings are expected to jump more than 50% year-over-year to $1.55 billion, or 94 cents a share.
Analysts are split on the outlook for AMD and its stock heading into Tuesday’s earnings. Half of the 12 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha rate AMD stock a buy, while five assign it a “hold” rating and one recommends selling. The consensus price target is $123.50, implying a 23% return from Monday’s close.
The Trump administration last month tightened restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, a move that Bank of America analysts called an “effective shipment ban” on AMD’s MI308 chip and Nvidia’s (NVDA) H20. AMD subsequently warned that it could be saddled with charges of up to $800 million if it can’t secure export licenses. Analysts expect the new restrictions to weigh heavily on AMD, Nvidia, and other chipmakers’ sales to China.
Meanwhile, massive AI infrastructure investment is expected to be a tailwind for AMD as it navigates an uncertain economic outlook. AI demand remains robust, according to major cloud service providers like Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN), who are all standing by their plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the technology this year.
AMD shares have lost about 36% of their value in the past 12 months, and are down about 17% since the start of the year.