Why Advance Auto Parts Stock Trounced the Market on Thursday

Investors were assertively stepping on the gas pedal with Advance Auto Parts (AAP 5.41%) on Thursday. The stock closed more than 5% higher as of the 1 p.m. ET early market close for the Fourth of July holiday, a figure that was well higher than the S&P 500‘s (^GSPC 0.83%) 0.8% increase. An analyst price target raise had much to do with Advance’s advance.

A 16% price target hike

Well before market open that day, Mizuho prognosticator David Bellinger upped his fair-value assessment of Advance’s stock. His new level is $44 per share, up notably from the preceding $38. Despite the fairly generous bump, Bellinger maintained his neutral recommendation on the auto parts retailer.

The analyst’s modification was due largely to the company’s first-quarter performance, according to reports. On the back of Advance delivering headline fundamentals that were significantly better than the consensus pundit estimates, Bellinger raised his own for full-year 2025 and 2026.

For the former period, he now feels that the company will earn $2.34 per share on the bottom line, where previously he had been modeling $2.18. As for 2026, he upped his profitability estimate to $4.00 from $3.75.

Should investors get on board?

Bellinger also devoted some words in his new Advance note to intimating why he left his neutral recommendation unchanged. He thinks that the company will continue to have challenges implementing its current turnaround plan. Many retailers, in his estimation, are facing similar difficulties.

While there was something to admire in Advance’s first-quarter earnings beat, I’d agree with the Mizuho analyst that retail is a tough game these days. I also don’t believe we’ll see sudden spikes in car sales, a dynamic that tends to inject some turbo into the performance of parts retailers like Advance. Therefore, I wouldn’t jump in to this particular ride just now.