Indian benchmark indices may open slightly lower on Tuesday amid the rising volatility in the global equities around Trump tariffs on various nations on Monday. Asian and US stocks digested the tariff jitters. However, the deal between India and US shall be keenly watched by Dalal Street, along with Q1 results of India Inc.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 39.90 points, or 0.16 per cent, lower at 25,499, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Asian stock markets took in stride the latest twist in Trump’s tariff roll-out on Tuesday. KOSPI surged more than a per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng added one-third to half-a-per cent each.
Overall, while the market may remain range bound in the near term amid global trade developments, improving earnings visibility and strong sectoral performance could support selective outperformance as the Q1 earnings season unfolds, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply lower on Monday, after US President Donald Trump announced hefty tariffs against various trading partners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 422.17 points, or 0.94 per cent, to 44,406.36, the S&P 500 lost 49.37 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 6,229.98 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 188.59 points, or 0.91 per cent, to 20,412.52.
US crude dipped 0.5 per cent to $67.59 a barrel after surging nearly 2 per cent on Monday. Spot gold edged 0.2 per cent lower. Oil prices eased on Tuesday as investors assessed new developments around Trump tariffs.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was little changed at 97.40, holding on to most of its gains from Monday when it rose 0.5 per cent. Tariffs on Japan and South Korea are now due to go up to 25 per cent on August 1. The dollar rose 0.2 per cent to 146.36 yen , touching a two-week high.
Markets may stay range-bound in the short term. Watch out for cues from global macro, crude trends, and institutional flows, said Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital. “Defensive plays like FMCG may continue to see interest, while PSU and defence names could take a breather. Traders should stay nimble—volatility may spike ahead of key economic data and earnings season.”
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 321.16 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,853.39 crore on a net-net basis.
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, said that the underlying tone remains positive, supported by rotational buying in heavyweight stocks across sectors. “Amid the ongoing consolidation, we maintain our bullish view and recommend continuing with a ‘buy on dips’ approach, focusing on stock selection based on relative strength,” he said.
Nifty & Sensex outlook
A small candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper and lower shadow with identical open and close and the predictability of this pattern could be less, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. “The short term trend of Nifty is choppy, near term uptrend remains intact. Any weakness finds support at 25300 and resistance is placed at 25700.” he said.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities views that 25,500/83,500 will act as an immediate breakout zone for traders. Above this level, the market could rally up to 25,575/83,700–25,650/84,000. “On the flip side, below 25,400/83250, we could see a quick intraday correction down to 25,300/83,000. Weakness may continue, potentially dragging the market to 25,225/82,800.”
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a doji candle signaling extension of consolidation amid stock specific action, said Bajaj Broking. “We expect the index to extend consolidation in the range 56,000-57,500 in the coming sessions. Only a move above 57,500 will open further upside towards 58,200-58,500 levels in the coming weeks. The broader trend remains positive, and dips can be bought,” it said.
Nifty Bank extended its ongoing consolidation phase, indicating that the short-term trend structure continues to lean upward, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities. “A breakout beyond 57,200 could unlock further upside toward 57,500 and eventually 57,700. Until a directional move emerges, the index is expected to remain range-bound,” he said.
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