Nvidia (NVDA) extended its record-breaking run on Thursday, trading above $154 per share and pushing its market cap closer to $4 trillion. The move caps a stunning turnaround since January, when geopolitical fears and competition from Chinese AI players triggered a brief sell-off.
Now, Wall Street is rallying around Nvidia again — and some analysts say the AI chip leader is just getting started.
Analysts see $250 upside on ‘golden wave’ of AI demand
Loop Capital’s Ananda Baruah sparked buzz this week by raising his price target to $250, the highest among tracked analysts. He sees Nvidia capturing the lion’s share of a $2 trillion AI chip market by 2028, calling the current phase the “next golden wave of Gen AI.”
“Nvidia remains essentially a monopoly for critical AI infrastructure,” Baruah said. “It has pricing power, margin control, and demand from every hyperscaler and government AI buildout on the planet.”
Meanwhile, Bank of America’s Vivek Arya issued a more tempered forecast, predicting the AI chip market will reach $650 billion by 2030, still up sharply from $201 billion in 2025. Arya emphasized that Nvidia remains “far ahead” of its rivals, even as new players emerge.
What’s driving Nvidia stock?
Nvidia’s growth in 2025 has been fueled by:
- Robust Q1 earnings that beat expectations despite China export bans
- New Blackwell AI chips gaining traction in data centers
- Major Middle East trade deals announced in May
- A wave of ETF inflows and leverage trades from retail investors
- Micron’s strong results, which highlighted demand for memory in Nvidia-powered systems
“Nvidia is not just a stock — it’s become the AI sector’s bellwether,” said Jared Blikre of Yahoo Finance.
Risks remain: China, competition, and overexposure
Despite bullish sentiment, Nvidia isn’t without challenges:
- Chinese rival DeepSeek’s AI model rattled markets earlier this year
- Trump’s trade policies have revived concerns about chip export limits
- Some investors worry about valuation risk, with NVDA trading near 75x forward earnings
- Nvidia’s size is warping ETF and index structures — it now represents 7.5% of the S&P 500, bigger than the entire utilities sector
ETFs, leverage, and investor risk appetite
The rise of 2x leveraged Nvidia ETFs has added fuel to the rally — but also amplified volatility. Experts warn that while short-term gains can be massive, leveraged products reset daily and can underperform in choppy markets.
“If you don’t understand the risks, you could end up losing money even when the stock goes up,” said Strategas Securities’ Todd Sohn.
What to watch next
- Earnings in August will test investor confidence in Nvidia’s premium valuation
- Global adoption of Blackwell chips in sovereign AI projects may support upside
- Any signs of slowing capex from Big Tech could trigger a pullback
- Watch for ETF flows and leverage positions as sentiment indicators