Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the world’s most valuable chipmaker, saw a minor stock slip this week as top Chinese tech firms stole the spotlight at the World AI Conference in Shanghai—where Nvidia was notably absent.
Huawei ascends as Nvidia steps back
Despite Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s high-profile visit to Beijing earlier this month, the U.S. company had no booth at China’s largest AI event of the year. Meanwhile, Chinese tech giant Huawei showcased its latest Ascend AI chips, drawing attention near the expo’s entrance.
Huawei’s new “Atlas 900 A3 SuperPoD” computing system—linking 384 Ascend chips—was on display for the first time. This massive hardware launch demonstrates China’s continued push to reduce reliance on U.S. chipmakers.
- Huawei’s edge: More chips per system than Nvidia’s Blackwell-based GB200
- Downside: Higher energy consumption vs. Nvidia’s efficient setups
- Market positioning: Targeting AI training, cloud, and edge devices
The shadow of U.S. export curbs
Nvidia has been restricted from selling its most advanced chips to China due to tightened U.S. export regulations. The company’s H20 chip—designed specifically for the Chinese market—is set to return to shelves after a months-long halt, though no shipment timeline has been confirmed.
China represents a $50 billion market for Nvidia. Huang has warned that prolonged U.S. restrictions could cement Huawei’s position as the dominant force in China’s AI infrastructure.
“Huawei is one of the most formidable technology companies in the world,” Huang said earlier this year, signaling concern over long-term market share erosion.
Nvidia’s growth vs. analyst skepticism
Nvidia’s current share price sits at $173.53, reflecting a 0.12% dip. While the company has experienced over 1,000% growth since 2023, analyst projections about its future diverge.
Analyst forecast: $800 by 2030?
Phil Panaro of Boston Consulting Group believes Nvidia could hit $800 per share by 2030, a potential 370% increase. His reasoning rests on the booming data center sector:
- Global data center capex: $400B in 2024 → $1T by 2028
- Nvidia’s FY2025 data center revenue: $115B (~30% market share)
- Projected 2030 revenue (at 30% share): ~$473B
However, reaching an $800 share price may require more than double that revenue growth. While still bullish long-term, some analysts argue Panaro’s forecast is overly ambitious.
China expands AI autonomy
Nvidia’s retreat comes as China accelerates efforts for AI self-sufficiency. Beyond Huawei, several other domestic players had a presence at the Shanghai event:
- Moore Threads and Yunsilicon: Semiconductor startups with proprietary chips
- Tencent and Alibaba: Showcased AI-powered translation, robotics, and smart devices
- NetEase’s Youdao: Revealed a handheld AI study tool powered by cloud and edge AI
In a bid to solidify leadership, Chinese Premier Li Qiang also announced a global AI cooperation organization, likely to be headquartered in Shanghai.
What’s next for Nvidia?
Although Nvidia retains its lead in GPU technology and datacenter AI infrastructure, geopolitical barriers are forcing a realignment in global chip dominance. Its ability to maintain momentum in the face of rising Chinese innovation and U.S. policy pressures will shape its long-term valuation.
Key takeaways:
- Nvidia absent from China’s key AI event, boosting perception of Huawei’s dominance
- U.S. export controls remain a significant threat to Nvidia’s China business
- Wall Street remains bullish, but $800 by 2030 is an aggressive forecast
- China’s AI ambitions are accelerating rapidly—both in policy and product