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Rigetti Computing: Sell RGTI Stock Ahead of Its Earnings?

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Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) is set to announce its earnings on Tuesday, August 12, 2025. Historically, the stock has shown a greater likelihood of a negative one-day return following its earnings announcements. Over the last five years, RGTI stock recorded a negative one-day return in 57% of these cases. The median one-day loss was -6.9%, while the maximum one-day negative return reached -14.6%.

For traders focused on events, historical trends can provide an edge. You can apply this information in two ways:

  • Position yourself before the earnings report, based on the historical probabilities.
  • Position yourself after the earnings report, by evaluating the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns.

Although much will rely on how the company’s results stack up against analyst predictions, it’s crucial to recognize that Rigetti is an early-stage quantum technology firm that hasn’t yet turned a profit. Analysts anticipate that Rigetti’s Q2 results will demonstrate a contraction, estimating revenue around $1.87 million and a net loss of $0.04 per share. This indicates a revenue drop from $3.09 million in the same quarter of the previous year, although the net loss has improved from $0.09 per share.

Examining the fundamentals, the company currently has a market capitalization of $4.5 billion. In the past twelve months, Rigetti achieved $9.2 million in revenue but did not reach profitability, incurring an operating loss of -$74 million and a net loss of -$138 million.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

Rigetti Computing’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

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Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

  • There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the previous five years, with 6 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns have occurred about 40% of the time.
  • Significantly, this percentage rises to 42% when we consider the data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
  • The median of the 6 positive returns is 7.8%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -6.9%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized alongside the statistics in the table below. Related – Why Is Rigetti Stock Soaring 70%?

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A comparatively less risky approach (though ineffective if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the necessary trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the strongest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns. Also, see – Can Rigetti Computing Stock See Another Tenfold Increase?

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