Investing News 

Which Mag Seven Stocks Should You Own?

Posted By: admin
view original post

The market is likely to close the year at new highs. Here is the reasoning:

  • The dynamic monthly cycle, graphed below, rises into Q4
  • The composite of the one-, four-, and ten-year cycles rise into yearend
  • The indices and the advance-decline line are at new highs.

Edgar Laurence Smith described the decennial pattern in the 1930s. He found that specific years in each decade had brought regular stock market patterns. For example, years ending in zero had the worst returns while years ending in five have had the best. Years ending in seven have tended to bring crises. The histogram of expected return below details the strength of fifth years based upon the Dow Jones average from 1885. As we can see, the remainder of 2025 has a bullish bias.

1-Dow Jones Monthly Histogram in Years Ending In Five

September has historically been the weakest month of the year. However, the ‘five’ influence tends to keep the bear away in the autumn. Here are the bullish percentages (the likelihood that the market will rise) for autumn months for the DJIA since 1885:

As we can see, this viewpoint projects higher prices in September-October.

Which of the Magnificent Seven stocks should be held? In order to answer this question, relative strength, seasonal and dynamic cycles are analyzed. The unique and proprietary Cycles Research Relative Strength Value screen measures all stocks on the same basis. The seven stocks are ranked below versus the NASDAQ Composite. When reading the table, keep in mind that the NASDAQ value is 97.5. So, Tesla and Apple are lagging the benchmark.

MORE FOR YOU

NVIDIA= 109.5

Meta= 104.6

Alphabet= 103.4

Microsoft= 99.7

Amazon= 98.7

Tesla= 96.1

Apple=94.0

Analysis is concentrated on top-ranked NVIDIA. The monthly cycle has been accurate in 2025. There is a cycle peak now leading to a low in September. In fact, September has been the fourth-weakest month in any year, so both the dynamic and the seasonal cycles point to lower prices. Add to positions in late September.

2-NVDA Monthly Cycle

META’s relative strength began to rise in April, making it one of the stronger stocks in this group. Price and relative strength are at new highs. The coming months have not been strong, but this is based upon only 14 years of data. Besides, the monthly cycle below rises into December. Hold the shares.

3-META Monthly Cycle

Alphabet is a mixed picture. Relative strength bottomed in May but has been inconsistent since 2024. The monthly cycle is at a peak now, suggesting that the next buy point is in October. Seasonality has not been very bullish in the second half of the year. The stock is unlikely to outperform the current leaders in the Mag 7.

4-Alphabet Monthly Cycle

Microsoft’s relative uptrend began in February, earlier than the other Mag 7 stocks. This stock is one of the few that features an upturn in monthly momentum. The monthly cycle tops in September and falls into yearend. The sell cycles in this stock have been less accurate than the buy signals over the last year. The conclusion is that the share price will rise into yearend but may begin to underperform the other Mag 7 members.

5-Microsoft Monthly Cycle

Amazon is seasonally strong in the second half of any year, and the monthly cycle is rising. This is the best cycle combination. In fact, September and November have been two of the most bullish months over the last 28 years. This stock is likely to rise in performance into yearend. Add to positions.

6-Amazon Monthly Cycle

The relative strength of Tesla actually topped in May. From now into yearend, only November has shown exceptional strength. The dynamic monthly cycle declines into September, rises into early November and then declines again. It is doubtful that this stock will rise in strength versus its Mag 7 brethren.

7-Tesla Monthly Cycle

Apple has been falling in relative terms through 2025. September has been the weakest month in any year over the last 45 years, up only 35% of the time. Note that the monthly cycle peaks now and declines into yearend. All three downturns in the last 12 months have brought the shares down. Underweight or sell this stock.

8-Apple Monthly Cycle