A flowerbed themed on the SCO Summit 2025 is seen at the square of Tianjin Railway Station on August 26, 2025. Photo: VCG
Editor’s Note:
The 2025 Tianjin summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be held from August 31 to September 1. In a recent interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Xia Wenxin, Alexander Lukin (Lukin), the academic head of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shared his viewpoints on the SCO’s expansion, role in maintaining global security and its prospects for a closer economic cooperation.
Alexander Lukin Photo: Courtesy of Lukin
GT: It is expected that the upcoming 2025 Tianjin SCO summit will be the largest one in scale since the establishment of the organization. How do you see the SCO’s role in today’s world? What are your expectations for this summit and the development of the organization?
Lukin: Over more than two decades of its work, the SCO has come a long way, developing “in breadth” (due to the accession of new member countries) and “in depth” (due to the creation of new institutions, for example, the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure).
Of the three main areas of SCO activity: security, economy and cultural cooperation, greatest achievements have been made in the field of security. To date, a number of important international agreements have been concluded, and joint military exercises are regularly held. Of particular importance is the coordination of actions to counter international terrorism. However, we can expect at least some moves forward in all three areas.
New geopolitical challenges require the SCO to undergo a gradual but decisive restructuring toward becoming a comprehensive security organization. It is advisable to develop the SCO as the main institutional support mechanism for the comprehensive security system in “Greater Eurasia.”
GT: During last year’s SCO summit in Astana, Belarus was officially admitted as a member state. How do you evaluate the SCO’s expansion in the past few years? Some argue that the SCO’s expansion has weakened the organization’s focus on Central Asia and brought new complications and frictions within the group. What is your take on this?
Lukin: Expansion is an important area of the SCO’s development, thanks to which it has turned from a group of six into a group of 10. The accession of India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus has significantly increased the potential of the SCO as a key institution of Eurasian security. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a meeting of the Council of the SCO Heads of State in Dushanbe in September 2021, noted: “The SCO is by right one of the most influential centers of the multi-polar architecture of international cooperation, making a significant contribution to security in the Eurasian region, its sustainable socioeconomic growth, and international peace and stability as a whole.” However, expansion also brought some problems, both of managerial and political character. Without solving them, the SCO can hardly move forward effectively.
GT: Many observers believe that economic cooperation has been the most challenging area for the SCO, with the lack of substantial achievements. In the face of the current uncertainties in global economic and trade development, how do you see the prospects for SCO’s economic cooperation?
Lukin: Economic cooperation within the SCO is the most complex topic. Here, the organization has not yet been able to achieve significant success. For many years, experts and politicians from member countries have been talking about the need to create an SCO Development Bank or another mechanism that could finance multilateral interstate economic projects. But, so far, only a common contractual framework has been created: just a few multilateral projects are being implemented on it, mainly in the field of transport and logistics.
In the new geopolitical situation, when it is extremely necessary to preserve all the positive things that the SCO has achieved over the past two decades of its existence, the task of intensifying multilateral economic cooperation comes to the forefront. In a situation where some of the SCO member states are suffering from Western sanctions, while others fear secondary sanctions and a decline in economic performance due to the general problems of the global economy, deepening economic cooperation to mitigate these threats is necessary for all.
The main problem of economic cooperation is the lack of a mechanism for financing multilateral projects. At a meeting of the SCO finance ministers in June, according to the official statement, “the importance of intensifying consultations on the establishment of an SCO financial mechanism was emphasized.” However, we have been hearing such formulations for 20 years, and the mechanism has still not been created.
GT: In addition to economy and trade, in which other areas do you think the SCO should strengthen cooperation?
Lukin: It is also important to intensify cooperation in the field of culture and education. There have been some achievements in the field of culture: A virtual SCO university has been created, and various cultural and sports events are regularly held: festivals, exhibitions, concerts. The SCO needs to strengthen scientific and educational ties within the SCO University, which is currently virtual. It is also necessary to develop the activities of the SCO Expert Forum as a “second track” for the formation of a broader network of specialists in SCO competencies.
GT: How do you think China and Russia, as regional powers, should play their roles in the SCO?
Lukin: In the new geopolitical context with its tendency to confrontation, the strengthened roles of Russia and China within the SCO are particularly vital. Their successful collaboration is pivotal for maintaining peace and security in the region under conditions acceptable to all members. Deeper China-Russia cooperation, both within and outside the SCO framework, can sustain relative stability in Eurasia.
GT: There have been voices suggesting that India’s attitude toward the SCO has been very complicated in the past two years. Indian media recently reported that after missing last year’s summit, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend this year’s SCO summit. What kind of signal do you think New Delhi wants to send through this? What role do you think India plays or should play in the SCO?
Lukin: India should, and is, perfectly able to play an important role in the SCO. In the current international situation, it would be beneficial to India. When US President Donald Trump threatens both India and China, as well as other countries, with secondary sanctions, India and China, as giants of the Global South, are likely to initiate discussions on a coordinated response. The SCO can be one of the platforms for such consultations.
GT: In recent years, a number of SCO member states have been involved in military conflicts. What are the biggest challenges facing the SCO in terms of security and stability? What more can be done in this regard?
Lukin: The geopolitical upheaval caused by armed regional conflicts has led to serious structural shifts in the international system, which, on the one hand, further increases the importance of the SCO, and on the other hand, is a powerful incentive for the further development and transformation of this organization. The fundamental structural changes in the international environment that are taking place today could become a factor in the deep transformation of the SCO and contribute to increasing its effectiveness. Russia is extremely interested in this, since the SCO is capable of becoming one of the strong pillars of a multipolar world.