Google searches for “help with mortgage” have shot up to the highest level since 2009, when Americans were navigating the recession sparked by the bursting of the U.S. housing market bubble.
This recent rise might come as a surprise only weeks after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since December this month, in a move that many—including President Donald Trump—were long wishing for to ease the U.S. housing affordability crisis.
But even though mortgage rates recently fell to their lowest level in months in anticipation of the widely expected Fed’s decision, they are now back on the rise. As of the week ending October 2, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage—the most popular form of home loan in the nation—was 6.34 percent, up 0.04 percentage points from a week earlier and 0.22 percentage points from a year earlier, according to Freddie Mac.
Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?
This is an increase that experts had considered as being in the cards following the Fed’s cut rate earlier this month, and which became even more likely as the country started facing a government shutdown.
“The Freddie Mac 30-year mortgage rate increased 4 basis points to 6.34 percent this week as markets weigh the implications of the government shutdown,” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jiayi Xu said in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“The timing of this disruption is particularly sensitive, coming just after the Federal Reserve cut policy rates for the first time in nine months. The Fed is now awaiting critical economic data—such as employment reports and inflation figures—to guide its next steps, but these releases are highly likely to be delayed,” she said.
“Fortunately, because the Fed operates independently, the shutdown will not affect the timing of its next meeting, even if the disruption continues through the end of the month. Still, the longer the shutdown drags on, the greater its potential influence on markets and monetary policy decisions will be.”
This uncertainty—which comes as signs suggest the U.S. economy is slowing—is likely making many American homeowners uncomfortable. A chart about the rise in Google searches for “help with mortgage” has gone viral on X, where users are discussing whether the country is facing a repeat of the foreclosure crisis which occurred in 2008.
But experts are wary of comparing the two historical moments, saying that the U.S. is now in a very different situation.
“In general, I would be wary of drawing strong conclusions from Google trends data. Methodologies and search patterns change a lot, so it’s hard to compare over time, especially so far back,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, told MarketWatch.
While Google Trends cannot offer a comparison between now and 2008-9, it is clear that the recent rise in searches for “help with mortgage” indicates distress among Americans.
Should Americans Be Concerned?
The current issues come on top of the challenges that U.S. homebuyers and owners have already been facing for months: high borrowing, maintenance and repair costs, as well as rising home insurance premiums and homeowners association (HOA) fees.
Mortgage delinquencies are on the rise. According to data from Intercontinental Exchange, serious delinquencies—which refer to loans that are over 90 days past due—were up 30,000 in July from a year earlier.
According to ATTOM, there were 187,659 properties with foreclosure filings across the country in the first half of the year, up by nearly 6 percent compared to the same period a year earlier. In August, foreclosures were down 1.1 percent from July but up 18.1 percent from a year earlier, at 35,697.
The worst foreclosure rates were reported in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida—states which boomed during the pandemic home-buying frenzy and which are now facing starker corrections than most of the country.
While foreclosure rates have risen across the country, they are not yet “at alarming levels,” Realtor.com wrote.
“I would pay much more attention to signals of local labor market weakness,” Krimmel said, such as rising unemployment “in areas where house prices are also falling and where there were a lot of purchases post-2022 rate hikes.
“For the ‘doomer’ theories of the 2008 redux to be true, you would need that sort of perfect storm: layoffs [and] falling house prices [and] high share of recent home purchases,” he said. “The good news is these perfect storms seem to be few and geographically isolated.”