Intel (INTC) shares have doubled over the past six months as the struggling chipmaker received capital infusions from the government and major corporations.
In August, President Donald Trump’s administration invested some $9 billion to build a 10% stake in the legacy technology company, followed by another $5 billion it received from Nvidia (NVDA) last month.
Note that Softbank (SFTBY) parked $2 billion in Intel stock this year as well. INTC is now trading at a price last seen in April 2024.
INTC stock continued to extend gains on Thursday following reports that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is in early talks to become its foundry customer.
Investors cheered Intel shares today mostly because such a development would validate the firm’s push to compete with Taiwan Semi (TSM) and Samsung in contract manufacturing, a key part of its turnaround strategy.
Winning a direct rival as a client would signal confidence in Intel’s process technology, potentially attracting other fabless customers. Plus, it may help offset the capital intensity of building domestic fabs, improving utilization and margins.
Strategically, it aligns with the broader U.S. efforts to localize chip production and could, therefore, attract further government support in the coming years.
All in all, this would mark a shift from the INTC’s insular model to a more diversified revenue stream, boosting long-term visibility and shareholder confidence that may lift Intel share price over time.
Options data from Barchart paints a cautious picture for INTC shares at least through the end of 2025.
Contracts expiring on Dec. 19 suggest a trading range of roughly $30 to $44.50, indicating nearly 20% downside potential in the worst-case scenario.
In the near term, through the end of next week, traders are pricing in a possible retreat to about $34.68.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the future of INTC and the potential profit-taking after a huge run-up, the downside case looks far more likely to play out in Intel stock.
Note that Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon is even skeptical of the AMD news, noting Intel’s most advanced nodes (like 18A) are still in development and that the chipmaker may prefer TSMC’s Arizona facility for U.S- based production.
Despite positive developments, Wall Street remains largely bearish on Intel shares for the next 12 months.
The consensus rating on INTC stock currently sits at “Hold” only with the mean target of $25.65 indicating potential downside of more than 30% from here.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. On the date of publication, the editor did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com