Tourists seen in Zhoucun Old County in Zibo, East China’s Shandong Province on October 7, 2025. Photo: VCG
The World Bank on Tuesday upgraded its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.8 percent in its October 2025 East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than its previous projection in June for China. A Chinese expert said the hike reflects the international institution’s recognition of the resilience of the world’s second-largest economy.
The World Bank did not cite a specific reason for the upgrade but noted that the “East Asia and Pacific region continues to outperform most of the rest of the world,” according to a press release sent to the Global Times.
“Against the backdrop of heightened global economic uncertainties and volatility, China’s economy has demonstrated robust resilience, with well-targeted policy measures continuing to produce effects. The World Bank’s move reflects the international institution’s recognition of China’s progress in structural economic optimization and industrial upgrading, while also underscoring confidence in China’s domestic consumption potential and advancements in innovation capacity,” Wang Peng, an associate research fellow at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
The Chinese economy has maintained steady growth so far this year despite complex external challenges. In the first half of 2025, as global economic development faced multiple challenges, China recorded a GDP growth rate of 5.3 percent, reaffirming its role as a major contributor to global recovery and a stabilizing anchor for the world economy.
“Leading macro indicators such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) show that the economy remained stable in the third quarter,” Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
China’s manufacturing sector continued to improve in September, with the PMI for the manufacturing sector standing at 49.8 in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on September 30.
During the eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the country’s cultural activities, bustling transport networks and innovative consumption scenes are painting a vivid picture of economic resilience and growth potential.
According to data released by the Ministry of Transport on Tuesday, China’s cross-regional passenger flow surged by 7 percent year-on-year to reach approximately 308.49 million on Tuesday, the seventh day of the holidays.
Thanks to visa-free policies, tax-refund policy, and easier mobile payment options, both Chinese and foreign tourists have shown a growing appetite for cross-border travel. The National Immigration Administration estimated that average daily border crossings during the holidays would exceed 2 million.
Alongside efforts to expand domestic demand, the rapid development of new quality productive forces has become a new driver for the sustained growth of China’s economy and its industrial transformation and upgrading.
Looking ahead, the fundamentals underpinning China’s long-term economic growth remain intact, Fu Linghui, a spokesperson with the NBS, said at a press conference on September 15.
“With macro policies taking effect, reform and opening-up further deepening, and the interplay between domestic and international economic flows becoming smoother – the economy is well-positioned for steady and positive growth,” Fu said.
Given the overall performance of China’s main sectors, the country’s macro policies have delivered the expected results, Cao said, while expressing full confidence in achieving the annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent this year on back of the economy’s strong resilience and policy support.
“The continuous unleash of domestic demand, competitiveness of China’s exports and market diversification, innovation-driven development, and policy coordination and institutional guarantee will jointly contribute to the achievement of the country’s pet-set annual GDP target,” Wang added.