This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) may be looking for a fresh spark after a months-long pause in its record-breaking rally. Its flagship AI conference, GTC, kicked off this week in Washingtonthe first time CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote in the US capital. Investors are watching closely, seeing symbolism in the setting: a conference near the White House, just as President Donald Trump prepares to meet China’s Xi Jinping. Fund manager Gerry Sparrow called GTC the AI Super Bowl, suggesting the location could signal new partnerships or policy clarity. Nvidia’s stock, up 32% through July but only 7.7% since, has fallen behind rivals as the AI trade matures.
That slowdown stands in sharp contrast to peers now racing ahead. Intel’s shares have more than doubled in three months, fueled by an $8.9 billion government investment for a 10% federal stake. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) surged 11% Monday after launching new AI chips aimed at challenging Nvidia’s dominance, while AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Broadcom have also outpaced the sector leader. Nvidia, meanwhile, continues to navigate geopolitical turbulence after agreeing with AMD to share 15% of their China AI chip revenue with the US governmenta controversial deal some analysts believe could later open the door to deeper Chinese market access, potentially adding about 10% to Nvidia’s $4.7 trillion market value.
Attention now turns to Huang’s keynote and the earnings flood from Nvidia’s biggest customersMicrosoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta (NASDAQ:META)which together account for more than 40% of its sales. Super Micro’s weak preliminary results last week raised questions about near-term demand, but Nvidia’s growth story remains formidable. Wall Street expects roughly 58% revenue expansion this fiscal year, more than twice the semiconductor industry’s pace. Trading at about 32 times forward earningsbelow its five-year averageNvidia could be setting up for another leg higher. As Sparrow put it, Between GTC and big-tech earnings, we could see two catalystsor two disappointments. But at this valuation, I’d be a buyer on weakness.