Speaking at the CNBC-TV18 Global Leadership Summit 2025 — 2nd Edition, NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam expressed confidence that India’s proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States could see some positive developments by the end of November. Around the same time, he said, the National Manufacturing Mission is expected to become operational.
“I think things have been a bit difficult with the United States, and I think a reset is being tried. The trade negotiations are on. Hopefully, by the end of the month, we may hear some news on that front,” he said.
Noting that New Delhi continues to attract a steady stream of foreign investors, Subrahmanyam added, “You have American companies opening global capability centres in India. You don’t see anybody leaving. That basically means the fundamental attraction of India will trump everything else.”
This comes at a time when the US is putting immense pressure on India to stop buying crude oil from Russia. On October 22, the US imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest crude oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, barring all American entities and individuals from conducting business with them. It also imposed a 25 per cent tariff on India as a penalty for purchasing oil from Russia, over and above the existing 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods entering American markets. Overall, Indian exports are facing steep additional import duties of about 50 per cent in the US.
Referring to trade-related concerns that emerged after former US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on several trade partners, Subrahmanyam said that many global certainties that existed after the Second World War no longer hold true. “So the world is in flux where trade is flat, FDI is flat or declining,” he said.
He observed that the world is heading towards an era of low growth, with India emerging as a standout case because of its size, market, and innovative talent. “It is the brightest spot in the global economy, and that is what makes it important,” he noted.
“Given that, I think India will be a pole that attracts everyone else. Rather than being forced to make choices, others will be compelled to reach out to India. That is the sweet spot India is in. It’s not necessary for India to take sides between the US and BRICS,” he added.
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“We are doing very good because there are strong inherent strengths. And I think if you have to live in the slightly more turbulent times, be it war, be it economy, be it tariffs, build up your internal strengths,” Subrahmanyam said. He also added, “the more India builds up its internal strength, the more the world will actually look at New Delhi far more favourably.”
National Manufacturing Mission
Referring to recent reform measures announced by the government, Subrahmanyam said the biggest among them was the National Manufacturing Mission that was introduced in this year’s Budget.
“The National Manufacturing Mission is going to transform India’s manufacturing landscape. It is going to be a very different approach, quite different, not throwing money alone, but actually focusing on building capabilities,” he said.
The government aims to increase the share of manufacturing in India’s GDP to 25 per cent, up from the current 15–17 per cent.
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Responding to a question on India’s re-engagement with China, Subrahmanyam said that large economies are indispensable to global trade. “If that country (China) accounts for 20 per cent of the world economy, you cannot shut off 20 per cent of the world economy. That’s the reality, whether we like it or not. Maybe it’s not our choice,” he said.
He added that China continues to be India’s largest source of imports because of the manufacturing capabilities it has built up.
Explaining Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis on ‘Swadeshi’, Subrahmanyam clarified that it does not mean protectionism. “What he is talking about is securing yourself from surprises and being self-reliant when necessary,” he said.