Global trade winners and borrowers: What current account surpluses and deficits say about the global economy in 2025?

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The current account measures how much a country earns and spends with the rest of the world. When earnings from exports, services, and remittances exceed spending on imports and payments abroad, it runs a surplus. When spending is higher, that country runs a deficit.

Many experts say a surplus signals external strength. It reduces reliance on foreign borrowing, supports the currency, and boosts investor confidence. On the other hand, a deficit shows dependence on foreign capital and increases economic weakness if global funding declines.

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World’s largest surplus economies

IMF data for 2025 shows China as the world’s largest surplus economy. Its current account surplus jumped from $293 billion in 2015 to $641 billion in 2025, a 119% rise over a decade and a 51% increase in one year, reflecting strong export performance.

Germany ranks second with a surplus of $272 billion, largely unchanged from 2015, pointing to stability rather than growth. Japan posted $167 billion, higher than a decade ago, but a 14% annual drop signals rising pressure.

Among other surplus economies, the Netherlands reported $126 billion, more than triple its 2015 level. Taiwan recorded $122 billion, while Singapore posted $100 billion, supported by trade and services.

In contrast, South Korea’s surplus fell to $89 billion, down from $105 billion in 2015. Norway ($84 billion), Ireland ($79 billion) and the UAE ($75 billion) saw strong long-term growth, though recent declines suggest adjustment.

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Deficit leaders

Among countries with the largest current account deficits in 2025, the United States stands out. Its deficit widened from $408 billion in 2015 to $1.22 trillion in 2025. The United Kingdom (UK) followed with a deficit of $122 billion, slightly lower than $145 billion in 2015. Brazil’s deficit reduced to $57 billion, while India’s deficit widened from $22 billion to $41 billion, reflecting higher import demand.

Ukraine shifted from a small surplus of $2 billion in 2015 to a $35 billion deficit in 2025. Australia and Romania both recorded deficits of $34 billion. Canada’s deficit was recorded at $32 billion, while Saudi Arabia’s deficit stood at $26 billion. Türkiye posted a deficit of $23 billion in 2025.