Geo-economic confrontation ranks as No 1 global risk in 2026: World Economic Forum

[SINGAPORE] Geo-economic confrontation has emerged as the top global risk for the year, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) recent Global Risks Report.

The 21st edition of the report, published on Wednesday (Jan 14), found that geo-economic confrontation moved up two spots from last year to rank as the No 1 immediate-term risk most likely to trigger a material crisis on a global scale in 2026.

This was followed by state-based armed conflict, extreme weather events, social polarisation as well as misinformation and disinformation, added the report.

The WEF study consolidates views from more than 1,300 global leaders and experts, and analyses risks over immediate, short-to-medium term (two-year) and long-term (10-year) horizons.

“In a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, confrontation threatens supply chains and broader global economic stability as well as the cooperative capacity required to address economic shocks,” the report stated.

The findings come as the global outlook remains uncertain, with half of the respondents surveyed expecting a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year.

Another 40 per cent expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled. Meanwhile, only 9 per cent expect stability and 1 per cent anticipate calm.

Geo-economic confrontation also placed as the most severe risk over a two-year horizon, followed by misinformation and disinformation, societal polarisation, extreme weather events and state-based armed conflict.

Interestingly, economic risks collectively recorded the steepest increases in rankings for the two-year horizon – despite being absent from the top 10 risks for the next decade.

The risks of economic downturn and inflation both moved up eight positions to No 11 and No 21, respectively, while the risk of an asset bubble bursting rose seven positions to No 18.

10-year horizon

Extreme weather events rank as the No 1 risk over the long-term horizon of 10 years, the report said. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse came in at second place, while critical change to earth systems claimed third position.

More than half (57 per cent) of the survey respondents expect a turbulent or stormy world over the next decade. Nearly one-third (32 per cent) expect things to be unsettled, 10 per cent predict stability and 1 per cent anticipate calm.

Notably, inequality has been identified as the most interconnected global risk over the next decade, in terms of driving other global risks as the social contract between citizens and governments falters under pressure.