Intel (INTC) stock is up about 9%, at the time of writing, Tuesday afternoon, Jan. 13, thanks to KeyBanc raising its price target to $60, according to Yahoo Finance. The company’s Q4 earnings are near and will be released on January 22.
Intel’s competitors, AMD and ARM, will also have their earnings releases soon, with AMD reporting Q4 on February 3 and ARM reporting Q3 on February 4.
Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team released a research paper ahead of earnings for these major CPU semiconductor companies.
Arya’s team hosted an investor meeting at CES with Intel’s investor relations representative, John Pitzer. The team now expects in-line or better Q4 sales and gross margins of $13.4 billion and 36.5% respectively. Analysts said that healthy server sales should offset the initial impact of rising memory prices on PCs.
In a research note shared with me, Arya reiterated an underperform rating for INTC stock and the target price of $40, based on a 3.5 multiple of his enterprise value-to-sales ratio estimate for 2027, in line with the historical range of 1.7 to 4.
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Lower than yield/ramp at Intel Foundry, particularly for its new 18A and
upcoming 14A nodes -
Lack of material external foundry customer in wafer processing
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Weaker-than-expected trends in a mature PC market
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Accelerated share loss to major CPU competitors
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Key external foundry packaging/wafer deals that could significantly boost
sales/utilization -
Greater-than-expected yields/ramps at 18A and upcoming 14A nodes, resulting
in a greater GM/utilization profile -
Stronger-than-expected PC market from Windows 10 refresh or AI uplift
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Geopolitical tensions boosting sentiment for domestic manufacturing asset
The last big deal for Intel in 2025 was when Nvidia completed its investment in the company. To understand the long-term importance of this partnership, you can read my in-depth analysis.
The team expects the ongoing ramp of AMD (AMD) MI355X and a strong server market to help drive sales in Q4 to the range of $9.7 billion to $9.8 billion, which is higher than consensus estimates of $9.6 billion.
Analysts said that for Q1, AI demand and Intel’s ongoing PC shortages could help AMD get sales in the range of $9.5 billion to $9.6 billion and beat consensus of $9.3 billion.
Arya reiterated a buy rating and the target price of $260, based on 27 multiple his estimate for non-GAAP EPS for 2027, which is toward the middle of AMD’s historical range of 13 to 58.
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Execution on the first rack-scale product (MI400 Series)
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The timing/magnitude of Middle East AI projects
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The lumpy nature of consumer and enterprise spending, which could cause delays in the acceptance and success of new products
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High reliance on one outsourced manufacturing partner
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The maturity of the current game console cycle
AMD will launch its Helios racks in 2026. To understand how important they are and how analysts reacted when they were unveiled, read my related article.
To gain insight into whether Nvidia is taking this product as a serious threat, see this previous story.
The team flagged ARM revenue slowdown in royalties/licensing and increasing SoftBank reliance in calendar year 2026. The team noted that global smartphone units could decline low-single-digit YoY due to increased memory costs and supply constraints, a headwind to ARM Client (more than 50% of royalty sales).
They said ARM compute subsystems (CSS) adoption is still limited and in early stages. The team estimates fiscal year 2026 revenue could decline 5% YoY, excluding SoftBank, which now represents 25% to 30% of total licensing and could raise circular financing concerns.
Arya downgraded the ARM stock from buy to neutral and lowered the price target from $145 to $120, based on a 46 multiple of his estimate for non-GAAP EPS for calendar year 2027.
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Historically cyclical nature of semiconductor units
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High exposure to the mature smartphone market
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Competition against established x86 in the data center
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Emerging competition from RISC-V in low-end consumer markets
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Rising geopolitical tensions and deterioration of the China-ARM relationship
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Ongoing Qualcomm/Nuvia litigation
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Small trading float
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Better-than-expected smartphone/PC/server unit shipment
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Faster adoption of higher-royalty rate v9 and CSS IP at customers
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Share gains in emerging ARM-based PC/server CPUs
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Further proliferation of AI data centers and hyperscale-specific custom products
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Qualcomm/Nuvia content expansion post-settlement
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Small floating volume
Related: Bank of America resets Amazon stock forecast
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jan 14, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.