Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed more than 3.5% during Friday’s morning session, approaching their 52-week high. This upward move was catalyzed not by AMD’s own news, but by a disappointing forecast from its chief rival, Intel, which appears to have inadvertently created a significant market opportunity.
A Rival’s Stumble Creates an Opening
The catalyst was Intel’s quarterly report, released after market close on Thursday. While the chip giant surpassed expectations for Q4 2025 with revenue of $13.7 billion—$300 million above forecasts—and an adjusted EPS of $0.15 (nearly double projections), its stock plummeted over 15%. The severe negative reaction was driven entirely by a weak outlook.
For the current first quarter, Intel provided revenue guidance of only $11.7 to $12.7 billion. The midpoint of this range falls approximately $310 million below analyst consensus. More strikingly, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share of $0.00, compared to expectations of $0.05.
Supply Constraints as a Strategic Gift
Intel’s CFO, David Zinsner, explicitly warned that product availability would be at its “lowest level” in Q1 before improving in the second quarter. He cited depleted inventory buffers and noted that the transition of wafer production to server chips initiated in Q3 2025 would not yield benefits until the very end of Q1 2026.
This supply chain challenge for Intel translates directly into a potential windfall for AMD. In an environment of sustained robust demand for AI chips and data center processors, significant supply constraints at a major competitor typically grant pricing power and volume opportunities to viable alternatives.
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AMD Enters the Period from a Position of Strength
AMD is well-positioned to capitalize. The company’s stock surged roughly 77% throughout 2025, significantly outpacing Nvidia’s 39% gain. Its operational performance has been strong, with data center revenue hitting $4.3 billion in Q3 2025, representing a 22% year-over-year increase. Strategic victories, including a multi-year partnership with OpenAI and the launch of its MI400 series for AI inference at CES 2026, provide additional tailwinds.
This optimism is reflected on Wall Street. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon raised his price target for AMD on January 21 from $200 to $225. For the upcoming Q4 2025 report, the analyst community anticipates earnings per share of $1.32, a 21.1% year-over-year increase, on revenue of $9.65 billion.
Upcoming Earnings as the Next Catalyst
All eyes now turn to AMD’s own financial results, scheduled for release on February 3, 2026, which will cover the fourth quarter of 2025. Notably, over the past 60 days, analysts have revised their earnings estimates upward by 0.76%. With Intel’s supply issues projected to persist at least through the end of March, AMD has a clear near-term window to gain share and benefit across both its data center and client businesses. The coming quarter may demonstrate how effectively AMD can convert a competitor’s weakness into its own accelerated growth.
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