Nearly three years after the launch of ChatGPT ignited a massive wave of excitement around artificial intelligence, the technology continues to shape global markets and economic expectations. While uncertainty is growing—especially around the sustainability of huge, debt-driven investments in AI infrastructure—analysts argue that AI’s influence on the world economy remains powerful.
According to strategists at Deutsche Bank, including Adrian Cox, AI has become a “spark, accelerator and source of fuel” for economic growth. They note that even before AI delivers its full potential in productivity gains, it is already lifting the wider economy in meaningful ways. The current surge in capital spending, swelling company valuations and early efficiency improvements are all contributing to economic momentum.
The analysts highlight the “prevailing view” among economists that AI could boost productivity by roughly 0.5% to 0.7% annually as automation transforms more than a quarter of workplace tasks. This shift is expected to unfold alongside a massive wave of investment, with hundreds of billions of dollars projected to flow into AI infrastructure—especially data centers and advanced chips. Spending in the sector is forecast to increase about 20% per year through the end of the decade.
Rising valuations for AI-focused companies may also generate a “wealth effect,” potentially adding up to two cents on every dollar of wealth created. Meanwhile, AI-driven efficiencies are anticipated to gradually reduce economic frictions, producing mild deflationary pressures. Large corporations are likely to grow even more dominant, while innovative newcomers carve out fresh opportunities in the evolving digital landscape.
Still, Deutsche Bank cautions that there is a possible outcome where the AI boom fizzles into a bust. In this scenario, high implementation costs and unreliable outputs could stall productivity gains, leading to an investment bubble that eventually collapses—leaving unused data centers and disappointed investors.
Ultimately, the analysts expect AI to evolve into a general-purpose technology similar to electricity: foundational, transformative and deeply integrated into future innovations. Even if development paused today, they argue, it would take years for society to fully grasp AI’s potential, adapt systems and train workers to capture its benefits.