Betting Big on Intel: Is INTC Stock a Buy Before Oct. 23 Earnings?

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Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has emerged as a magnet for high-profile partnerships and investments in 2025, signaling a potential revival for the previously beleaguered chipmaker. 

Key deals include a $5 billion investment from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), paired with a strategic alliance to co-develop chips for PCs and data centers, promising up to $50 billion in annual revenue long-term for both companies. SoftBank invested $2 billion in August to fuel AI research and development, while the U.S. government awarded Intel $8.9 billion under the CHIPS Act for domestic manufacturing expansion, effectively taking a nearly 10% stake. 

Other moves involve a partnership with Exostellar for AI infrastructure and selling a 51% stake in its Altera unit to private equity firm Silver Lake, contributing to the $20.4 billion in total capital raised this year and boosting cash to $47 billion. There are also ongoing foundry ties with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) that continue over from last year, as well as a long-standing collaboration with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and the Defense Dept.

These developments have fueled a 90% year-to-date stock surge. Traders anticipate significant volatility post-earnings, with options pricing suggesting a nearly 12% to 13% swing either way after Thursday’s report. But should investors buy INTC stock before its  Oct. 23 earnings report?

What This Quarter’s Numbers Will Tell Us

Despite the buzz around Intel’s partnerships, don’t expect them to juice third-quarter results. Most are capital injections that strengthen the balance sheet rather than flowing directly to the profit and loss statement. 

The Nvidia investment and co-development pact, for instance, focus on long-term projects like next-gen AI chips, with revenue impacts projected for 2026 or later. SoftBank’s funds target research and development, which typically incurs upfront costs before yielding returns. The government’s CHIPS Act grants support factory builds in states like Ohio and Arizona, but these are multi-year endeavors — construction and ramp-up won’t contribute meaningfully to Q3 revenue.

Wall Street analysts echo this caution. Consensus estimates peg Q3 earnings per share at a loss of $0.02 to a $0.04 per share profit, certainly a rebound from last year’s $0.46 per share loss , on revenue of $12.7 billion to $13.2 billion, which is essentially flat year-over-year. 

Recent upward revisions of about 2% hint at mild optimism, but historical surprises from INTC have been significantly negative on average over the past four quarters, although the chipmaker beat estimates twice recently. 

While product launches such as the AI Boost NPU and Core Ultra 200V processors might add incremental sales if adoption was strong in Q3, there is nothing to suggest a breakout yet.

Competitive Pressures Cloud the Outlook

Intel faces stiff headwinds from rivals like Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), Nvidia, and Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), who dominate in advanced nodes and AI. Foundry delays have also plagued Intel, and while new investments aim to close the gap, they’re not quick fixes. 

The Altera sale could even drag on margins by offloading a profitable segment. Wall Street’s hold consensus and price targets implying 28% downside reflect skepticism about near-term execution.

Management’s guidance will be pivotal. If executives highlight accelerated timelines for partnerships or cost savings from workforce cuts, it could drive the stock higher. But weak Q4 forecasts — amid ongoing foundry losses and macroeconomic softness — might trigger a sell-off.

Key Takeaways

While Intel stock is up 90% YTD, transforming from a company where rivals like AMD, TSM, Nvidia, and Broadcom were considering picking over the bones of a chipmaker that looked like it was dying and about to be broken up into a significant dealmaker that suddenly has a much brighter future, it likely hasn’t reached that stage yet. Don’t expect to see big uptake in the P&L statement, though the balance sheet may look much healthier. 

Because retail investors are expecting a big upside surprise, they could be greatly disappointed by the actual results and sell off the stock as a result. Key will be what management says during its earnings conference call about its progress and where it is heading in the future. As a result, Wall Street’s hold rating is likely the correct one. 

Having come so far so fast, there will likely be better entry points to buy in, but until Intel proves it can deliver on its promise, making big bets on the stock is not warranted yet.

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