Buy SOFI Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

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SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) is scheduled to announce its earnings on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. Historically, SOFI stock has performed well the day after earnings reports, showing a positive one-day return in 69% of instances. When positive, the median gain has been 5.3%, with a maximum one-day jump of 28.4%.

For event-driven traders, understanding these historical patterns can offer an edge, although the actual results compared to consensus estimates will be the primary driver. There are two main approaches to trading around SOFI’s earnings report:

• Pre-Earnings Positioning: Based on historical odds, you could consider taking a position before the earnings release.
• Post-Earnings Positioning: Alternatively, you can analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to guide your trading decisions.

Analysts are anticipating earnings of $0.06 per share on revenue of $804 million for the upcoming report. This compares to the same quarter last year, when SOFI reported earnings of $0.02 per share on revenue of $597 million.

SOFI currently has a market capitalization of $23 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $2.8 billion in revenue and it reported a net income of $482 million.

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See earnings reaction history of all stocks

SoFi Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

• There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 69% of the time.
• However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
• Median of the 11 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -10%

Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of SoFi Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before SoFi Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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