An executive at FedEx has issued a gloomy warning for the U.S. economy, which is already grappling with fears over an impending recession.
Last week, John Dietrich, executive vice president and chief financial officer for the delivery and logistics company, said: “I think it’s reasonable to assume that the macro-environment is not going to significantly improve at least for the first half of [financial year] 2026.”
Dietrich’s comments came following the release of FedEx’s third-quarter results, as the company lowered its full-year earnings and revenue guidance to reflect “continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy.”
Why It Matters
Economists and financial institutions have been voicing increasingly urgent concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, with many suggesting that the country is on the brink of a major economic downturn.
FedEx’s guidance revision suggests that these warnings are being heeded by corporations themselves and that some of the country’s largest firms are now pricing in the possibility of a recession in the near future.
What To Know
On Thursday, FedEx released its quarterly results for the period ending February 28. Despite posting increases in both revenue and profit, the company lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for the full year, now projecting revenue to range from flat to slightly declining year-over-year, compared to its previous expectation of this remaining “approximately flat.”
“Our revised earnings outlook reflects continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy, which is constraining demand for our business-to-business services,” said Dietrich.
The FedEx logo is displayed on a smartphone screen on March 16, 2025.
Cheng Xin/Getty Images
FedEx’s CFO is not alone in his predictions. According to a recent survey by CNBC, 60 percent of U.S. CFOs now expect a recession to occur in the second half of 2025, while an additional 15 percent believe this will take place in 2026. Seventy-five percent of respondents expressed being “somewhat pessimistic” about the U.S. economy, while 95 percent stated that policy uncertainty from the administration was affecting their decision-making.
Last week, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN that it felt like the country was being “pushed into a recession.” The chances of this occurring, he added, were “uncomfortably high” as a result of President Trump‘s tariff policies.
This pessimism has continued to spread into the consumer space, according to data released on Tuesday morning.
According to The Conference Board, consumer confidence retreated for its fourth straight month in March, dropping to its lowest level since February 2021. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor market conditions, fell to 65.2—its lowest level in 12 years and below the 80-point threshold that the research firm identifies as a signal of an impending recession.
What People Are Saying
FedEx Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich said during the company’s Q3 earnings call: “Our revised earnings outlook reflects continued weakness and uncertainty in the U.S. industrial economy, which is constraining demand for our business-to-business services. Despite this uncertainty, I’m confident we are well positioned to execute on our transformation initiatives and create stockholder value.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said earlier in March that Americans should “absolutely not” prepare for a recession.
“[Trump] is going to win for the American people,” he added. “That’s just the way it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America.”
Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist for Global Indicators at The Conference Board, said: “Consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished [in March], suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations.”
Bill Adams, Chief Economist for Comerica Bank, in comments shared with Newsweek: “It’s hard to say how long the headwinds from retrenching consumer confidence will last. Comerica’s forecast assumes that the DOGE cutbacks and revenues from tariffs are repurposed to partially pay for tax cuts next year: The extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and probably some incremental cuts to fulfill campaign promises and juice the stock market, too. If the public conversation turns from spending cuts to tax cut happy talk, consumer sentiment could rebound.
“But in the meantime, the economy is likely to slow and underperform its growth in 2023 and 2024.”
What Happens Next?
FedEx is scheduled to release its results for the full financial year on June 24.