The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a cautious note on Thursday, despite a rally in global markets.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,250 level, a discount of nearly 62 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
Sentiment remains cautious amid signs of escalation in geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan after the Pahalgam terror attack. India retaliated by downgrading diplomatic ties with Pakistan, and announcing decisions such as suspending the Indus Water Treaty.
On Wednesday, the domestic equity market extended the rally for the seventh consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,300 level.
The Sensex gained 520.90 points, or 0.65%, to close at 80,116.49, while the Nifty 50 settled 161.70 points, or 0.67%, higher at 24,328.95.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex rallied 521 points and closed above the 80,000 level on Wednesday, holding a higher high and higher low formation on both daily and intraday charts, which supports a further uptrend from current levels.
“We are of the view that, as long as the Sensex is trading above 79,500, the bullish sentiment is likely to continue. On the upside, it could move up to the range of 80,300 – 80,500. Conversely, if Sensex falls below 79,500, we could see a quick short term correction down to the 79,200 – 79,000 range,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty OI Data
Heavy open interest (OI) accumulation at the 24,500 strike indicates a near-term ceiling, while significant put writing at the 24,000 strike reinforces a solid base just below current levels. This positions the 24,350 – 24,500 range as a critical resistance cluster. A notable observation is the gradual migration of call writing to higher strike levels, reflecting an increasingly bullish outlook, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
Meanwhile, the Put-Call Ratio has marginally declined from 1.06 to 1.04, still reflecting a favorable bias. Max Pain remains anchored at 24,100, signaling that traders are positioning for consolidation just below current prices, though overhead resistance persists, he added.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 continued its upside momentum amidst volatility on April 23 and closed the day higher by 161 points.
“A small red candle was formed on the daily chart with a long lower shadow. Technically, this market action indicates a hanging man type negative candle pattern. But this pattern needs to be confirmed by the Nifty 50 moving below the low of the pattern (at 24,120) to call this a reversal. However, sometimes such market action results in an uptrend continuation pattern,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be positive and though the market is facing hurdles and volatility at the highs, still there is no confirmation of any reversal pattern or tiredness at the highs.
“The next upside to be watched are around 24,550 and 24,800 in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,100 levels,” said Shetti.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd., noted that the Nifty 50 index crossed the key hurdle of 24,250, indicating strength and formed a red candle with a long lower shadow, suggesting buying interest at lower levels.
“Nifty 50 index continues to hold above its 200-Day Simple Moving Average (24,050), keeping the broader structure intact; as long as it sustains above this level, a move towards 24,500 – 24,800 looks feasible. Thus, traders are advised to follow buy on dips strategy for the short term,” said Yedve.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty 50 formed a Dragonfly Doji on the daily chart, indicating cautiousness. However, the primary trend remains firmly positive, with the index comfortably holding above all key moving averages.
“Nifty 50 closed above the previous day’s high, highlighting the ongoing bullish momentum. The immediate support is placed at 24,150, with an additional cushion at 24,100, if breached. The resistance is placed at 24,500, which coincides with the 127.8% retracement level. In the near term, a pullback after a sustained rise cannot be ruled out, or the index may consolidate within a range before making its next decisive upward move,” said Mehra.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the investors are advised to consider following the buy-on-dip approach to take advantage of the current moment in this sector.
“From a technical perspective, the Nifty 50 index formed a hanging man candlestick pattern on the daily chart during the last session. Amid these developments, Nifty can expect support near 24,150, 24,020, or 23,930 and find resistance near 24,500 and 24,670 in the next market session,” said Ambala.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty declined 0.50% to close at 55,370.05 on Wednesday, forming a bearish candle on the daily chart with the open and high remaining identical.
“Bank Nifty index failed to sustain above the 56,000 level. However, Bank Nifty continues to hold above all key moving averages, maintaining its broader bullish outlook. On the daily chart, the index remains positioned above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential mean reversion. Meanwhile, the hourly RSI is cooling off from the overbought zone, suggesting a possible consolidation phase,” said Om Mehra.
According to him, the Bank Nifty support is placed at 54,700, with an additional cushion at 54,500. The resistance remains at 56,100, which needs to be crossed for further upside.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the daily stochastic has approached overbought territory after an 11% rally in just 7 sessions.
“Hence, failure to move above 56,000 levels will lead to some consolidation in the range of 54,400 – 56,000 in the coming sessions. While a move above 56,000 levels will lead to extension of up move towards the 56,800 zone in the coming weeks. The key support base is placed at 54,000 – 53,500 levels, being the Monday’s gap area and the recent major breakout area,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
According to Hrishikesh Yedve, the Bank Nifty index on the daily chart has formed a big bearish candle, which has completely engulfed the previous day’s candle, signalling a potential reversal and indicating underlying weakness in the near term.
“Going forward, 56,000 – 56,100 will act as a stiff resistance for the index, while 54,470 remains a crucial support zone. Traders should monitor these levels for potential trading opportunities,” said Yedve.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.