The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open on a flat note on Monday, tracking mixed sentiment in the global market.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,445 level, a premium of nearly 4 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the domestic equity market ended with sharp losses, as the benchmark Nifty 50 closed below 24,400 level.
The Sensex lost 765.47 points, or 0.95%, to close at 79,857.79, while the Nifty 50 settled 232.85 points, or 0.95%, lower at 24,363.30.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty OI Data
On the derivatives front, highest Nifty Call OI (Open Interest) is observed at the 24,500 and 24,700 strikes, likely to act as strong resistance zones. On the downside, 24,300 Put OI buildup suggests this level may hold as a near-term base. A breakout on either side will likely determine the next decisive move in the index, said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst – Research at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 has formed six consecutive red candles on the weekly chart — a rare and notable pattern that indicates sustained selling pressure.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart that completely negated the bullish sentiment created on Thursday. A long negative candle has been formed on the weekly chart which is for the sixth consecutive week on the trot. The formation of long upper shadows in the last 4-5 weekly candles signal sell on every rise in the market,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying trend of Nifty 50 continues to be weak and the next lower levels to be watched are around 24,200 – 24,000 by next week. However, any pullback up to the hurdle of 24,500 could be a sell on rise opportunity.
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group noted that the Nifty 50 declined for the sixth consecutive week, closing below both its 100-day and 55-day EMAs
“Nifty 50 index, however, continues to hold above the key 200-day EMA near the 24,200 level. Notably, the 24,550 level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, making the 24,500 – 24,550 zone a strong resistance area and an attractive sell opportunity for traders. A decisive breach below the range could lead to upside movement toward 24,800. On the downside, 24,200 now acts as a key support. A sustained move below this level may trigger further upside toward 23.900. Overall, a “sell-on-dips” approach remains favorable,” said Singhania.
Om Ghawalkar, Market Analyst, Share.Market believes for the Nifty 50, holding 24,000 is critical to avoid deeper declines, while a breakout above 25,000 could revive bullish sentiment.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder, Stock Market Today highlighted that the market momentum shows that we are currently in a profit-booking phase and not panic-driven sell-offs, while there’s also weakness across Bank Nifty, midcaps, and select heavyweight stocks.
“That’s why a sell-on-rise strategy would be more effective for market participants. They should also keep an eye on a breakdown below 24,000, as it could trigger sharp volatility. We can expect Nifty 50 to gain support between 24,120 and 24,000, and face resistance near 24,380 and 24,450 in today’s trading session,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index declined 516.25 points, or 0.93%, to close at 55,004.90 on Friday. For the week, the index slipped 1.10%, forming a bearish candle on the weekly chart, indicating persistent selling pressure.
“The 100-day EMA zone of 54,950 – 54,850 will be a critical support area for Bank Nifty. A sustained move below 54,850 could intensify the downtrend, opening the gates for a decline toward the next support zone of 54,000 – 53,900. On the upside, any recovery is likely to face resistance near 55,700 – 55,800, which now acts as a key hurdle for the bulls,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
The Bank Nifty index closed firmly below the 50-day SMA on the daily chart and remains on the verge of the 100-day SMA, keeping the trend weak. The RSI has dropped to 33, hovering near oversold territory, while the MACD continues to extend its negative crossover.
“On the weekly timeframe, the Bank Nifty index has been sliding steadily from its June peak, with RSI easing to 53 from 62 in recent weeks, signalling a loss of medium-term momentum. On the upside, any sustained recovery would require a close above the 56,000 – 56,500 zone,” said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.
Broader support is layered at 54,500 and 53,800, creating a staged base on the downside. Until the index closes back above 56,400, rallies are likely to remain constrained, with upside attempts meeting resistance at these pivotal zones, he added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.