The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Friday ahead of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a tepid start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 25,084 level, a discount of nearly 38 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the domestic equity market extended rally for the sixth consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 holding above 25,000 level.
The Sensex rose 142.87 points, or 0.17%, to close at 82,000.71, while the Nifty 50 settled 33.20 points, or 0.13%, higher at 25,083.75.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has formed a small candle on daily charts, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears.
“We are of the view that the larger market trend is upward, but for day traders, buying on intraday corrections and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy. On the downside, 81,700 and 81,500 would act as key support zones for Sensex, while 82,300 and 82,500 could be crucial resistance levels for the bulls,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
However, he believes the sentiment could change below 81,500, and if Sensex falls below this level, traders may prefer to exit long positions.
Nifty OI Data
In the derivatives segment, the highest Nifty call open interest (OI) was recorded at the 25,300 strike, while the highest put open interest was concentrated at the 25,000 strike. This positioning indicates that resistance persists near 25,300; however, traders are eyeing potential upside, with a sustained close above this level necessary to keep bullish momentum intact, said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a small bearish candle with a higher high and higher low signaling consolidation amid stock specific action on the weekly expiry session.
“A small red candle was formed on the daily chart after surpassing the hurdle of the down sloping trend line at 25,050 levels. Technically, this market action indicates lack of strength to witness decisive upside breakout. This could be considered as a short term breather in the market amidst an uptrend,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the overall uptrend of Nifty 50 remains intact, but short term consolidation or minor weakness can’t be ruled out in the next 1-2 sessions before surging higher towards the next hurdle of 25,300. Immediate support is placed at 25,000 levels.
Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking Ltd said that the Nifty 50 index reclaimed the 61.8% retracement of the fall from 25,669 to 24,338, placed at 25,160.
“The 50-DMA at 25,010 now serves as immediate support. Momentum indicators and oscillators remain in the positive zone, confirming a bullish undertone. On the upside, a sustained move above 25,160 could open the path towards 25,250 and 25,350. However, chasing the index at higher levels is not advisable, as the risk-reward turns unfavourable. A buy-on-dips approach would be more prudent,” Jain said.
According to Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, momentum indicators have turned down from the overbought region, indicating a possible reversal from the current levels.
“The meeting of Trump and Putin shows, on the outset, positive news for the markets; however, a change in stance on either side can push the markets down. The option writer’s data shows a large writing at 25,000 puts; however, a short covering of these puts can push the markets further down,” said Dwarakanath.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 56.95 points, or 0.10%, higher at 55,755.45 on Thursday, forming a red candle on the daily scale, indicating selling pressure at higher levels.
“Bank Nifty index has been oscillating in a tight range, hovering around its 20-day and 50-day EMA. From a technical standpoint, the daily RSI remains in a sideways trajectory, in line with the RSI range shift rules, indicating indecision and a lack of clear trend strength in the near term. Going ahead, the zone of 56,000 – 56,100 will act as an important hurdle,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.
He believes any sustainable move above the level of 56,100 will lead to a sharp upside rally upto the level of 56,500, followed by 56,900 in the short term. While on the downside, the zone of 55,400 – 55,300 will act as crucial support for the Bank Nifty index.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the short-term trend remains neutral, with the index still capped below the super-trend resistance, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
“On the downside, the 23.6% retracement at 55,480 is providing a cushion, but a close below this level could trigger renewed weakness. A breakout above 56,020 – 56,100 would be required to confirm a meaningful continuation of the rebound. Nifty Bank is currently in a consolidation phase, where the upside may remain limited and short-term moves could stay choppy,” Mehra said.
According to Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates, immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed near 55,500, while major support lies around 54,900 levels.
“As long as Bank Nifty holds above this zone, the broader bullish bias remains intact. On the upside, the 34-DEMA placed near 55,920 will act as the immediate hurdle, while major resistance is positioned around 56,200. Overall, the Bank Nifty index is likely to consolidate within the range of 54,900 – 56,200, and a decisive breakout on either side will set the next directional move,” said Yedve.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.