The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open higher on Monday, amid upbeat domestic and global sentiment after India and Pakistan announced to halt military operations, while US and China agreed for a trade deal.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-up start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,541 level, a premium of nearly 475 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
India and Pakistan reached a ‘bilateral understanding’ to halt firing and all military actions. Air Marshal AK Bharti said that Operation Sindoor achieved objectives.
On Friday, the domestic equity market extended losses amid rising India-Pakistan tensions, with the Nifty 50 holding the 24,000 level.
The Sensex declined 880.34 points, or 1.10%, to close at 79,454.47, while the Nifty 50 settled 265.80 points, or 1.10%, lower at 24,008.00.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex dropped 1,047 points last week, forming a long bearish candle on weekly charts, and is also trading near the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) support zone.
“We believe that as long as Sensex remains below the 79,900 level, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, it could retest the 78,800 level. Further downward movement may continue, potentially dragging the index to 78,200. On the flip side, a move above 79,900 could signal a pullback rally. Above this level, Sensex could bounce back up to 80,500 – 80,800,” said Amol Athawale, VP- Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 slipped into a sharp weakness on the backdrop of rising escalation between India and Pakistan on May 9 and closed the day lower by 265 points amidst high volatility.
“A small green candle was formed on the daily chart at the lows with a long upper shadow. Technically, this market action indicates an attempt of downside breakout of the range movement. Nifty 50, on the weekly chart, formed a bearish engulfing type candle pattern (not a classical one) this week after a sustainable upside in the last four weeks. This is a negative indication and signals a formation of a crucial reversal pattern on the downside as per long term chart,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, further weakness from here could find strong cluster supports around 23,800 – 23,600 levels (weekly 10/20 period EMA and support as per change in polarity) and there is a possibility of an upside bounce occurring from the lows. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,200.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, noted that the Nifty 50 index formed a bearish candle on the daily chart and slipped below the 9-day EMA.
“Nifty 50 has now retraced to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, placed at 23,910. Additionally, Nifty 50 has breached the support of the hourly Supertrend indicator, further reflecting a weakening market undertone. The support remains at 23,800, followed by 23,700. A break below this zone could pave the way for a deeper retracement, potentially toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level near 23,500,” said Mehra.
The daily RSI is going lower and is now at 54, indicating a slowing pace. A weekly loss of 1.39% in Nifty underpins a cautious short-term outlook, as the recent correction may obstruct a swift and sustainable recovery, he added.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, advises market participants not to panic – those who have invested heavily should consider small hedges and adopt a neutral trading strategy rather than a directional view.
“Nifty 50 formed a marubozu candlestick pattern on the weekly chart during the last session. Nifty can gain support between 23,830 and 23,700, while resistance can be found near 24,150 and 24,250,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty registered a decline of 770.40 points, or 1.42%, to end at 53,595.25, slipping below both the 9-day and 20-day EMAs. Bank Nifty declined by 2.76% on the week, reflecting the loss of the positive outlook.
“Bank Nifty closed below its 21-day EMA, which is positioned near 53,800. This breakdown marks a bearish shift, breaching the recent consolidation range on the downside. The next crucial support is seen near 52,900, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally. On the upside, the 54,000–54,200 zone continues to act as a strong resistance. A sustained move above this range may pave the way for a short-term rally toward 55,000,” said Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group said.
He advises traders to stay cautious and adopt a sell-on-rise strategy amid increased volatility across broader indices.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd., noted that the Bank Nifty index formed a doji candle on the daily chart, indicating uncertainty, while on the weekly scale, it formed a big red candle, indicating weakness.
“The next key support for the Bank Nifty index is placed near the 52,000 level, while short-term resistance is seen at 55,000,” said Yedve.
Bajaj Broking Research expects Bank Nifty to extend the consolidation in the range of 53,000 – 56,000.
“Bank Nifty index has already taken 10 sessions to retrace just 38.2% of the preceding 6 sessions rally signaling a shallow retracement of the previous up move. On the downside, key support is seen between 53,000 – 53,500 levels being the previous major breakout area and previous gap up area,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.