CHONGQING, CHINA – FEBRUARY 23: In this photo illustration, the Nutanix logo is displayed on a smartphone screen, with the company’s latest stock market performance and candlestick charts visible in the background, highlighting Nutanix’s real-time financial trends, stock price fluctuations, market volatility, and investment developments within the cloud computing, software infrastructure, and technology sectors, on February 23, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX), which provides cloud software for data centers and hybrid multi-cloud setups, is slated to report earnings on Wednesday, August 27, 2025. Historically, these announcements have driven notable share swings. Over the last five years, Nutanix has posted a positive one-day move after earnings 60% of the time. Among those positive instances, the median one-day gain was 9.9%, and the best single-day increase was 29.2%, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to earnings news.
For event-driven traders, patterns from prior results can be useful, though the reaction ultimately hinges on how outcomes stack up against consensus. Two common tactics include:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Use historical odds to take a stance before results hit.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Assess how immediate moves relate to medium-term returns and trade accordingly.
Analysts currently expect Nutanix to earn $0.33 per share on $643 million in revenue for the upcoming print, versus $0.27 per share on $548 million in the same quarter a year ago. On fundamentals, Nutanix carries an $18 billion market cap. Over the past twelve months, it produced $2.4 billion in revenue, generated $129 million in operating profit, and recorded $24 million in net income.
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Nutanix’s Historical Odds of a Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some takeaways on one-day (1D) post-earnings moves:
- Across 20 data points in the last five years, there were 12 positive and 8 negative 1D returns—implying positive outcomes about 60% of the time.
- This figure rises to 67% when focusing on the most recent 3-year window.
- Median of the 12 positive 1D returns = 9.9%, while the median of the 8 negative 1D returns = -7.8%.
Additional details for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns—along with summary statistics—are shown in the table below.
NTNX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk framework (though not helpful if correlations are weak) is to study how short-term and medium-term returns move together, identify the most correlated pair, and trade that relationship. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader might go “long” for the next 5 days when the 1D post-earnings move is positive. Below is correlation data using both a 5-year history and a more recent 3-year cut. Here, 1D_5D denotes the correlation between the 1D post-earnings move and the subsequent 5D return.
NTNX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer results can sometimes shape Nutanix’s post-earnings reaction—and the pricing-in may even begin ahead of its own release. The chart below compares Nutanix’s past post-earnings 1D moves with the 1D post-earnings reactions of peers that reported just before Nutanix.
NTNX Correlation With Peer Earnings
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