TLDR
- Nvidia secured U.S. export approval for its H200 AI chip to China last week, but Chinese customs is blocking entry into the country.
- Inventec, a Taiwan-based server maker that manufactures AI servers with Nvidia chips in Shanghai, confirms the holdup is on China’s end.
- The H200 is Nvidia’s second-most-powerful AI chip and has become a key issue in U.S.-China trade tensions.
- Inventec President Jack Tsai says his company must wait for Beijing’s decision and cannot move forward with orders until China approves.
- Analysts remain optimistic on Nvidia with a Strong Buy rating and average price target of $263.44, representing 41% upside potential.
Nvidia got what it needed from Washington. The company received approval to export its H200 AI chip to China under certain conditions. But there’s a problem. The chip can’t actually enter the country.
Chinese customs authorities have told agents the H200 is not allowed in. This flips the usual script on chip export disputes. Normally, U.S. restrictions are the bottleneck. This time, Beijing is the one putting up walls.
The situation puts companies like Inventec in a tough spot. The Taiwanese manufacturer builds AI servers using Nvidia chips for Chinese clients. Their Shanghai factory handles most of this production. Now those operations are stuck in neutral.
China Controls the Next Move
Inventec President Jack Tsai spoke about the issue Tuesday in Taipei. “Basically, the United States is open to it, but at the moment it appears to be stuck on the China side,” he said.
The company has no choice but to wait. Orders remain frozen even though Chinese tech firms want the chips. “We will continue to communicate with customers, and if it is allowed, we will do it,” Tsai explained. “If not, there is nothing we can do, because we cannot violate regulations.”
Tsai pointed to politics as the deciding factor. The technical approval from the U.S. doesn’t matter if China refuses entry. It’s a policy call, not a supply issue.
The H200 ranks as Nvidia’s second-most-powerful AI chip. It handles large-scale data processing and AI training workloads. Chinese companies see it as crucial for closing AI development gaps with Western competitors.
Three Possible Outcomes
Beijing’s intentions remain murky. China could ban the chip completely to protect domestic semiconductor companies. The government might still be reviewing U.S. export restrictions before deciding. Or this could be a negotiating tool in broader trade discussions with Washington.
For Nvidia investors, it adds uncertainty to China revenue. The company cleared the U.S. hurdle but the final decision sits with Chinese officials. Shares closed at $186.23 Friday, down 0.44%.
Wall Street analysts haven’t backed off. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating. The average price target sits at $263.44, implying 41.46% upside from current levels.
This reversal matters because it changes who controls the narrative. Export restrictions usually flow from Washington. Now Beijing holds the cards. Inventec and other manufacturers will keep orders paused while they wait for clarity.
What Comes Next
Nobody knows when China will decide. The standoff leaves Nvidia’s second-most-powerful chip in regulatory limbo. U.S. approval means nothing without Chinese clearance. Inventec can’t ship products. Chinese customers can’t receive orders. Everyone waits.
The H200 situation highlights how chip exports have become tools in geopolitical chess matches. Technical capabilities matter less than political willingness. Until China makes its position clear, the chips stay out and the orders stay frozen.