00:00 Speaker A
Let me just throw some stats at you here. Nvidia over the last three months has done exactly nothing. It’s basically flat. Meanwhile, analyst target price has risen from about 200 on its last earning day in uh late August to $237.18. That is a 19% rise. So the question is, is Nvidia going to catch up to that level or are they going to disappoint and our analysts going to have to come down. We know that analysts tend not to come uh lower their projections on a stock like Nvidia that has done so well over these last few years. So I would lead towards the former. Uh but here’s another stat, trailing quarter volatility for Nvidia, the average daily range over the last 90 days has been 3.4%. That is historically low. We’ve seen that much higher in years past, last and quarters past. And then the options implied volatility, that’s what options traders are expecting the move tomorrow to be after this report, digesting all those numbers, about twice that, 7%. That’s pretty normal, but that is also, well, it’s normal that it’s twice the uh actual average truly average true range over the last 90 days. But that number was much higher in the past. I’ve seen that 10, 12%. So in general, Nvidia volatility has been coming down. Analyst expectations are pretty high right now, yet the stock has done nothing over these last 90 days.
01:03 Julie
We will see if anything changes after the close. And whether it’s going to change or not, will depend on what we hear, Dan Halley, from the company. I mean, we’ve been talking a lot in recent days about what to expect from Nvidia. Um, so, you know, now that the day is finally here, what are you hearing in terms of what’s really going to determine whether investors and traders are disappointed or not? Like, what are going to be those key pivot stats?
01:25 Dan Halley
Yeah, Julie, there’s uh an interesting uh kind of piece that Jean Munster at Deep Water Asset Management had put out saying that this is basically going to be a catch 22 for Nvidia in that if they report, you know, they they beat and raise, then people will continue to say, oh, well, the AI build out is is, you know, overblown. There’s there’s too many people uh building out these these data centers. This is clear evidence of that. If they don’t beat and raise, then it’s, oh, well, the AI bubble is starting to burst. And so it’s these two kind of, you know, opposing directions that we could see uh Nvidia go in, but the other is to just keep in mind what’s happened in prior earnings reports where we saw Nvidia report, uh, you know, they didn’t have 200% growth as they had had for, you know, a quarter or two and the stock price drops. And so that could be something that we see. It’ll gradually start to go up again, but it could just be those immediate shocks um after the the earnings themselves. Now, obviously people are going to be looking out for the increase in Blackwell sales, uh when they’re they’ll start shipping Vera Ruben at scale, that’s their next next gen. They have Blackwell Ultra as well. Uh and then really what’s going on as far as the data center hyperscalers. And so those are the Microsofts, the Googles, the Amazons. They are responsible for around 50% of Nvidia’s revenue, but they’re increasingly relying on their own chips as well as chips from AMD. AMD announced that they had a deal with Oracle, with OpenAI, uh and they said that they have several multi-billion or uh uh uh gigawatt scale projects in the offing right now. So, uh they haven’t announced anything in particular from that, but it does prove that the competition is heating up. That said, Nvidia still controls anywhere between estimates are 75 to 90% of the market. So it’s not as though they’re going to be hurting with that additional competition, but it absolutely is something to look out for.