NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is scheduled to report its earnings on Wednesday, November 19, 2025.
The earnings arrive at a time when investors are intensely focused on the durability of the AI infrastructure boom and whether hyperscalers can sustain their aggressive pace of capital spending. Nvidia now serves as a marketwide bellwether — its results and guidance often shape sentiment across cloud, semiconductors, and the broader AI ecosystem.
NVIDIA components are displayed at the GTC Paris NVIDIA at the VivaTech technology startups and innovation fair at the Paris Expo Porte de Versailles, in Paris on June 12, 2025. The VivaTech fair opened in Paris on June 11, 2025 in the presence of the French Minister for Digital Technologies, before welcoming a number of tech stars and the French President against a backdrop of trade tensions between Europe and the United States. (Photo by Thomas SAMSON / AFP) (Photo by THOMAS SAMSON/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Demand for its high-end GPUs remains exceptionally strong, fueled by tech giants racing to build out massive AI compute clusters. Hyperscalers have been lifting their AI-related capex plans in recent quarters, powering Nvidia’s data-center growth. At the same time, anticipation around next-generation products and the prospect of looser U.S. export restrictions to China have added to the stock’s momentum.
The company’s current market capitalization stands at $4.5 Trillion. For the past twelve months, revenue amounted to $165 Billion, with $96 Billion in operating profits and a net income of $87 Billion, indicating operational profitability. Although the stock’s reaction post-earnings will be contingent upon how the results and outlook compare to investor expectations, a thorough examination of historical results can assist you if you trade based on events.
This can be accomplished by either assessing the historical probability and positioning yourself before the earnings announcement or analyzing the connection between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings report, and entering a position one day following the announcement.
MORE FOR YOU
View the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Individual stocks may experience significant gains or losses, but one crucial element remains: maintaining your investment position. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio assists you in achieving this goal.
NVIDIA’s Historical Probability of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some key insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- A total of 19 earnings observations have been documented over the last five years, revealing 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. In conclusion, positive 1D returns were recorded approximately 53% of the time.
- Significantly, this percentage rises to 64% when considering data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 10 positive returns is 6.7%, while the median for the 9 negative returns is -6.3%
Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
1D Returns
Trefis
Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not advantageous if the correlation is weak) is to investigate the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair exhibiting the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D display the strongest correlation, a trader can take a “long” position for the upcoming 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is favorable. Presented below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. It is important to note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
1D, 5D, 21D
Trefis
Is There Any Connection with Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing may commence even before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical information comparing the post-earnings performance of NVIDIA stock with that of peers who reported earnings just prior to NVIDIA. For an equitable comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
NVDA Returns
Trefis
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after NVDA
Additionally, if you seek potential gains with a more stable experience than an individual stock like NVDA, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, which consists of 30 stocks and boasts a record of consistently outperforming its benchmarks, including the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. What accounts for this? As a collective, HQ Portfolio stocks have delivered superior returns with reduced risk compared to the benchmark index, which results in less volatility, as demonstrated by HQ Portfolio performance data.