Prediction: This Is How Much NVIDIA Will be Worth At The End of 2026

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been continuously delivering higher and higher gains, and its quarterly earnings reports have exceeded earnings expectations longer than any bull would have imagined two years ago.

But today, many think that NVDA stock may be at a crossroads and can plateau and fall due to the perception that AI progress is slowing down, and the ostensible bubble may burst. It’s not improbable, though each time Nvidia was supposed to slow down, it doubled in value. At the same time, you can’t look at the rearview mirror to judge what’s ahead.

Valuing NVDA a bit over a year out will take a lot of guesswork due to how fast AI is moving and the number of variables involved. Let’s first take a look at where the business stands today.

Nvidia’s still growing, albeit a bit slower

Q2 Fiscal 2026 delivered $46.7 billion in revenue, up 56% year-over-year. This was the 9th consecutive quarter of 50%+ YOY growth, but it also had the slowest growth rate in that stretch. Data center revenue, the engine of Nvidia, missed expectations and came in at $41.1 billion vs. $43.3 billion expected.

The company guided Q3 revenue to $54 billion, implying 54% YOY growth, but explicitly excluded any H20 sales to China from that forecast. Gross margins remain elite at 72.7% (non-GAAP), and Nvidia expects to exit FY 26 with mid-70s margins, thanks to the ramp of its Blackwell platform.

Could China lead to a miss in Q3?

The company’s business in China has collapsed. CEO Jensen Huang confirmed in October 2025 that NVIDIA’s share of China’s advanced AI accelerator market had fallen from 95% to 0% due to U.S. export controls.

The H20 chip, designed specifically to comply with U.S. restrictions, was blocked in April 2025, then tentatively approved in July, but only under the condition that Nvidia pay 15% of Chinese H20 revenue to the U.S. government.

China itself has been cracking down on Nvidia chips. It once accounted for 20-25% of data center revenue, but in Q2 FY 26, China revenue fell to just $2.8 billion, or 5.9% of total revenue, down from $5.5 billion in Q1.

Still, China itself is unlikely to lead to a major miss. And even if it does, the market won’t discount NVDA stock as much, as the miss is more due to policy, and less so due to a collapse in AI demand.

A potential bubble?

A growing concern among analysts is that Nvidia’s revenue growth is due to a “circular” AI bubble, and the allegations are not unfounded. Nvidia has poured money into AI startups like OpenAI and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV), among others. In turn, these startups used that capital to buy Nvidia chips. This is a feedback loop where Nvidia’s own cash fuels demand for its products.

Morgan Stanley and Bernstein analysts have flagged this as “bubble-like behavior”, reminiscent of dot-com-era vendor financing and revenue roundtripping. The fear is that if AI demand slows, hyperscalers and startups could be left with overbuilt infrastructure and no return on capital.

However, I wouldn’t let this be a decisive factor in valuing NVDA stock. Nvidia is seeing genuine demand from hyperscalers and cloud computing companies, which may last for years if they meet their CapEx commitments.

Where will NVDA stock be one year out?

The most difficult variable to judge is whether or not companies will continue pouring money into the AI build-out. If one looks at how optimistic CEOs across the industry are, the build-out will likely continue unless something drastic happens.

With that in mind, I see Nvidia keeping up with estimates. Now, how high of a multiple will Wall Street slap on the earnings?

Here’s what the market has paid historically:

The median price-earnings ratio in the past 10 years is above 60 times. Even if you stretch the chart to 15 years, it’s above 45 times. Currently, you pay 52 times earnings. Forward PE is also below the 10-year median of ~36 times, at ~29 times today.

Let’s use estimated earnings to extrapolate the price of NVDA stock, assuming the market pays 45 times earnings.

In this case, NVDA stock should be in the ballpark of $270 by year-end 2026. Expect to see some ups and downs by the time it gets there, but it’s hard to see NVDA stock decline if earnings keep rising.

Using price-sales and price-book ratios, we see the same trajectory:

Should you buy NVDA stock now?

NVDA stock is now in almost every tech ETF, and even the S&P 500 puts a 7.4% weight on the stock.

If Nvidia were to fall, it would take the rest of the market down.

Thus, I’d still keep NVDA stock in my portfolio. I’ll only sell if you are paranoid of an AI bubble popping soon, but the numbers in the earnings tell us otherwise.

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