CANADA – 2025/03/24: In this photo illustration, the QuantumScape logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
QuantumScape (NYSE: QS), a company without revenue that’s dedicated to developing solid-state batteries, is set to announce its earnings on Wednesday, October 22, 2025.
Given that QuantumScape is still pre-revenue, it has been burning cash, as indicated by its latest financial results: an operating loss of $-506 million and a net income of $-463 million. The current market cap is $8.6 billion.
For traders focused on events, the stock’s past performance surrounding earnings is significant. Over the past five years, QuantumScape’s stock has yielded a negative one-day return in 67% of cases following the announcement of results. The median negative return on these occasions was -6.4%, with the highest one-day negative return reaching -17.1%.
Although the results will ultimately depend on how the performance aligns with consensus and expectations, recognizing these historical trends can provide a competitive advantage. Traders typically adopt two primary strategies:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Evaluate the historical probabilities and establish a position prior to the earnings announcement.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the relationship between the immediate one-day return and subsequent medium-term returns to adjust positions after earnings are disclosed.
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QuantumScape’s Historical Chances of a Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points documented over the last five years, with 6 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 33% of the time.
- However, this percentage drops to 25% when considering data from the last 3 years rather than 5.
- The median of the 6 positive returns = 14%, while the median of the 12 negative returns = -6.4%
Additional data regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns are consolidated with the statistics in the table below.
QS 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Relationship Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (although not effective if the correlation is minimal) is to analyze the relationship between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the greatest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrated the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the subsequent 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below is some correlation data derived from a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D pertains to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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Is There a Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Occasionally, the performance of peers can affect the stock’s reaction following earnings. In fact, the pricing might begin before the earnings announcements. Below is some historical data regarding the recent post-earnings performance of QuantumScape stock compared to the performance of peers that reported earnings shortly before QuantumScape. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
QS Correlation With Peer Earnings
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