CHONGQING, CHINA – SEPTEMBER 14: In this photo illustration, a smartphone shows the logo of FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX), a U.S. multinational courier delivery services company providing express transportation, e-commerce and business services, with the company’s latest stock market chart seen in the background on September 14, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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FedEx (NYSE: FDX) is set to disclose its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on Thursday, September 18, 2025 (the fiscal year concludes in May). Historically, FDX stock has typically responded adversely to earnings announcements. In the last five years, the stock fell on the day after an announcement in 58% of instances. The median drop was 4.0%, with the largest one-day decline reaching 21.4%.
For traders who take advantage of events, recognizing these historical trends can be advantageous. This information can be utilized in two ways:
- Pre-earnings positioning: Assess the historical probabilities and take a position prior to the earnings release.
- Post-earnings positioning: Investigate the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns following the earnings release, and adjust your position accordingly.
Analysts anticipate FedEx to report earnings of $3.64 per share with sales of $21.7 billion for Q1 2026. This is in comparison to the earnings of $3.60 per share with sales of $21.6 billion from the same quarter last year.
In terms of fundamentals, FedEx currently has a market capitalization of $55 billion. Over the past twelve months, the company has generated $88 billion in revenue, with operating profits of $6.0 billion and a net income of $4.1 billion, demonstrating operational profitability.
That said, if you are looking for potential growth with less volatility than owning a single stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has significantly outperformed its benchmark—a mix of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns over 91% since it was launched.
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FedEx’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There have been 19 earnings data points recorded over the past five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 42% of the time.
- Interestingly, this percentage increases to 45% when considering data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
- The median of the 8 positive returns is 6.6%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -4.0%
Additional data on the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
FDX 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A somewhat less risky strategy (though it may not be effective if the correlation is weak) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings. By identifying a pair that has the strongest correlation, traders can execute the proper trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader might take a “long” position for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both a 5-year and a more recent 3-year history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the subsequent 5D returns.
FDX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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