Nvidia has a big day in front of it later this month, and investors need to know how to prepare.
Nividia (NVDA -0.85%) appears set for a big month. The semiconductor company, whose graphics processing units (GPUs) power data centers and large language models to make artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) possible, is reporting its second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings results after the closing bell on Aug. 27.
Investors should be pleased to know that all signs point to another solid earnings report. Particularly when it’s not hindered by tariff fears, Nvidia has a history of seeing its stock jump following a positive report.
Let’s take a closer look at what is to be expected from Nvidia — and why investors who have the stock will likely be richer afterward.
Image source: Nvidia.
Why you should expect a solid earnings report
Nvidia has an overwhelming market share in the GPU market, with recent estimates indicating that it has a 92% piece of the business. These GPUs are designed to work collectively, so when a data center customer buys hundreds and links them together, they can work faster and more powerfully, running top-of-the-line platforms with generative AI.
Some of Nvidia’s biggest customers have already announced plans to increase their data center spending even more. Meta Platforms is adding $30 billion this year to its capital expenditures (capex) to a level between $66 billion and $72 billion. Alphabet says it will increase its capex guidance for 2025 from $75 billion to $85 billion. And Microsoft says that it will increase its spending in 2026, although it won’t be as rapid as it was for the 2025 fiscal year, which ended June 30, 2025.
Analysts surveyed at Yahoo! Finance forecast Nvidia revenue in Q2 to be $45.75 billion (at the midpoint) versus $30.04 billion a year ago, and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.00 versus $0.68 in the same quarter a year ago. That represents a 52% gain on revenue and a 47% improvement in EPS if the forecasts are correct.
In addition, investors hope to get more details from Nvidia about a reported deal it made with the White House to allow it to sell its valuable H20 AI chips in China. The company was forced to take a $4.5 billion charge against earnings in Q1 because it was blocked from selling the high-performance chips. The company recently announced that the Trump administration agreed to let it restart sales. The deal would allow Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to sell their chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government. But no additional details on how the deal would work have been released since. Nvidia is likely to get questions from analysts about the deal and how it might affect guidance for the rest of the 2026 fiscal year.
How Nvidia stock moves after earnings
To get a better idea of what to expect from the post-report market, it pays to see what the stock did following the last several earnings reports.
| Period | Revenue | Revenue Growth (YOY) |
EPS | EPS Growth (YOY) |
90-Day Stock Performance* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $44.1 billion | 69% | $0.76 | 27% | 23.9%* |
| Q4 2025 | $39.3 billion | 78% | $0.89 | 82% | (7.1%) |
| Q3 2025 | $35.1 billion | 94% | $0.78 | 111% | (13.2%) |
| Q2 2025 | $30.0 billion | 122% | $0.67 | 168% | 16.1% |
Source: Nvidia. Note: Q1 2026 was released May 28, 2025; Q4 2025 was released Feb. 26, 2025; Q3 2025 was released Nov. 20, 2024; Q2 2025 was released Aug. 28, 2024. * Stock performance is for the 90 days following the report’s release, except Q1 2026, which is performance only through Aug. 13, 2025. YOY = Year over year.
Two things stand out here: First, Nvidia is remarkably consistent in adding roughly $5 billion in new revenue each quarter. While the year-over-year increase in growth is reduced, that’s only because each quarter Nvidia faces more challenging comparable numbers. That’s not a serious problem to have, so if I see a report that says “Nvidia’s growth is slowing,” that’s not something I’m going to stress about as an investor.
Second, Nvidia’s post-market performance appears to be solid. There are two quarters in the last calendar year where the stock dropped, but that was entirely because of the tariff and trade war battles being fought between Washington and the rest of the world. The demand for Nvidia chips isn’t going away, and as long as the government doesn’t interfere, Nvidia’s performance should be solid. That’s why the company’s news that it will be allowed to sell its H20 chips in China — followed by the separate White House statement — is so important to Nvidia stock, and it’s one of the reasons why Nvidia currently has a market capitalization of $4.4 trillion.
I am confident that Nvidia will have a solid quarter, particularly with major tech companies increasing their capex spending and expanding their data centers. And now that the H20 sales to China appear to have a green light, we should expect a more-than-respectable report from Nvidia on Aug. 27. I recommend buying the shares before the report date and holding them for a long time.
Patrick Sanders has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.