Consumer confidence saw an uptick in July, with many Americans adjusting their expectations following a rebound from the lows triggered by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
However, confidence still lags the elevated levels observed last year, and labor market concerns remain top of mind, according to new data released Tuesday morning.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July rose to 97.2, surpassing both June’s revised figure of 95.2 and the 96.0 reading anticipated by economists.
“In July, pessimism about the future receded somewhat, leading to a slight improvement in overall confidence,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in the release.
The “Present Situation Index,” which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 1.5 points to 131.5 in July.
The “Expectations Index,” which tracks consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, rose to 74.4 in February from 69.9 last month. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year.
Notably, Americans’ appraisal of current job availability weakened for the seventh consecutive month, reaching its lowest point since March 2021. In July, 18.9% of consumers reported that jobs were hard to get, up from 14.5% in January.
According to Guichard, consumers’ write-in responses highlighted that tariffs remained a significant concern, with many associating them with fears of rising prices.
References to high prices and inflation also increased in July, even as consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectations eased slightly to 5.8%, down from 5.9% in June and a peak of 7% in April.