Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) investors have been pinning their hopes that its latest AI-focused chips will help it close the gap on segment leader Nvidia. But fresh data suggests that this dream might be fading fast.
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A proprietary GPU benchmarking report from Jefferies indicates that Nvidia’s H200 boasts a notable performance edge over AMD’s MI300x. In fact, Hopper isn’t even Nvidia’s latest GPU, suggesting the gap could widen further with the new Blackwell and upcoming Rubin architectures.
“Our proprietary benchmarking report suggests real-world throughput of NVDA’s H200 across a range of open-source models is substantially higher than AMD’s MI300x, despite MI300x’s higher advertised TFLOPs and memory bandwidth,” said Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis, who ranks in the top 2% of Wall Street stock experts.
A reasonable counterargument is that AMD’s solution may not be as well optimized for the models tested. However, Curtis says that is “exactly the point.” The results highlight the critical role of Nvidia’s “mature software stack” in optimizing GPU efficiency, and this advantage is likely to expand as system-level performance (e.g., NVL 72 vs. 8-GPU HGX configurations) becomes increasingly important.
The research also showed that running inference on MI300x nodes presents meaningfully greater challenges for developers than on the H200. For example, the process of downloading model weights and loading them into memory for testing takes over four times as long on the MI300x (~90 minutes) compared to the H200 (~20 minutes). Although these inefficiencies are “correctable,” Nvidia’s sustained performance leadership has created a “substantial network effect,” where developers focus on optimizing and troubleshooting Nvidia hardware well before turning their attention to AMD.
Curtis also notes that AMD has shown limited progress toward hitting the $10–15 billion in AI revenue that Wall Street is counting on for 2026–2027. Additionally, Intel is now under new management and that could catalyze the company to become “more competitive,” particularly in the Client PC space.
All of this leads Curtis to dial back his bullish stance. He’s now moved to the sidelines, downgrading AMD shares from Buy to Hold, and trimming his price target from $135 to $120. That still implies about 12.5% upside from current levels. (To watch Curtis’s track record, click here)
Curtis is not the only one treading carefully. 11 other analysts are also sitting on the fence. Still, with 24 analysts maintaining a Buy rating and just one waving the Sell flag, the overall consensus lands at a Moderate Buy. And the outlook isn’t too shabby – the average price target of $147.34 suggests the stock could climb 38% higher in the months ahead. (See AMD stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.