The BSE Midcap index slipped 0.06%, but the Smallcap index bucked the trend, rising 0.47%.
Top three Stocks Recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 4 July:
Buy: Ashok Leyland (ASHOKLEY) — Current Price: ₹250.50
Why it’s recommended: Ashok Leyland is exhibiting a strong bullish setup with a clean breakout from a flag-and-pole formation after weeks of consolidation.
The breakout was confirmed on the lower timeframe from the ₹234 level, and the stock has since held gains with a steady climb. Daily RSI is at 68, indicating strong momentum, while a bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart supports further upside. The price is trending firmly above short-term moving averages, and the structure favours a continuation toward the ₹272– ₹275 zone.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: ₹234 (validated on lower timeframe), Support (stop loss): ₹238
Pattern: Flag-and-pole continuation on daily and intraday chart
RSI: 68 on the daily chart — reflects strong bullish momentum
Technical analysis: The stock has broken out above the consolidation pattern formed between ₹234– ₹247, confirming a bullish flag on the lower timeframe. A large bullish candle marked the breakout, followed by consistent follow-through. Momentum indicators are aligned with the trend — daily RSI is elevated but not overbought, and MACD has recently turned positive. The price structure suggests a possible move toward and beyond ₹270, with short-term resistance expected around ₹272– ₹275.
Risk factors: A close below ₹238 would invalidate the breakout structure and suggest a weakening of momentum. Caution is advised if broader market sentiment turns risk-averse or if the stock fails to hold above ₹247 in the next couple of sessions.
Buy at: ₹250.50
Target price: ₹272– ₹275
Stop loss: ₹238.00
Buy: Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL) — Current Price: ₹426.00
Why it’s recommended: BEL is displaying strong bullish momentum, having broken out of a narrow consolidation on the intraday chart. The breakout is validated by a bullish flag structure and supported by rising volume and a bullish crossover in the hourly RSI. The stock continues to trade above key moving averages and has maintained a strong uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, signaling potential for further upside toward ₹452.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: ₹426.00 (validated on lower timeframe), Support (stop loss): ₹412
Pattern: Flag breakout on intraday chart
RSI: Bullish crossover on hourly RSI — confirms increasing momentum
Technical analysis: BEL has emerged from a short-term consolidation zone and registered a bullish breakout with supporting volume. The price is well-supported above its 20-DMA and short-term trendline. The RSI and MACD indicators on intraday and daily timeframes are pointing higher, with the breakout level at ₹426 now serving as the new base. The price action suggests continued bullish bias with potential to test the ₹452 level.
Risk factors: A sustained move below ₹412 would invalidate the breakout and could lead to short-term weakness or consolidation. Broader market softness may also limit upside in the near term.
Buy at: ₹426.00
Target price: ₹452.00
Stop loss: ₹412.00
Buy: Hindustan Petroleum Corp. (HINDPETRO) — Current Price: ₹436.60
Why it’s recommended: Hindustan Petroleum is showing a strong bullish continuation pattern, having cleared the upper end of its recent consolidation zone. The stock has formed a solid base around ₹400 and has now broken out decisively above previous resistance levels. The daily RSI is strengthening around 64, and the price is holding well above key moving averages, suggesting trend continuation toward ₹473.
Key metrics: Breakout zone: ₹436.60 (validated on daily chart), Support (stop loss): ₹414
Pattern: Base formation and breakout on daily chart
RSI: 64 on the daily chart — reflects rising bullish momentum
Technical analysis: The stock is trading comfortably above its 20-DMA and 50-DMA, with higher lows confirming an ascending structure. Price has broken through previous resistance at ₹425 and is now sustaining above that level. Momentum indicators continue to support the uptrend, with MACD staying positive and RSI trending higher. The setup suggests further upside toward the ₹473 zone.
Risk factors: A move below ₹414 would invalidate the breakout structure and indicate weakness. External factors such as crude oil volatility or market-wide selling could temporarily impact price strength.
Buy at: ₹436.60
Target price: ₹473.00
Stop loss: ₹414.00
Market Wrap – 3 July
On Thursday, 3 July, the Nifty 50 slipped 48.10 points, or 0.19%, to close at 25,405.30, reversing early gains. The BSE Sensex ended down 170.22 points, or 0.20%, at 83,239.47. Meanwhile, Bank Nifty underperformed, losing 207.25 points or 0.36% to settle at 56,791.95, weighed down by sustained selling in frontline private lenders.
The session reflected clear signs of sectoral rotation. Interest-sensitive sectors led the decline—PSU Banks dropped 1.44%, Metals fell 0.97%, and the Realty index slipped 0.83%—as investors booked profits following recent outperformance.
Conversely, defensives lent support. The Healthcare index outperformed, rising 1.41%, while Auto and Pharma gained 0.34% and 0.32% respectively, helping limit the broader market decline.
Among top gainers, Apollo Hospitals surged 3.64% amid strong institutional buying. Dr. Reddy’s rose 2.94%, and Hero MotoCorp added 2.11%, reflecting continued interest in quality defensives and consumption-linked stocks.
On the downside, financials dragged sentiment. SBI Life Insurance fell 2.81%, Kotak Bank lost 2.49%, and Bajaj Finance declined 2.44%, contributing notably to the pressure on benchmark indices.
Nifty Technical Analysis – Daily & Hourly
The Nifty ended the day with a mild reversal from higher levels, closing 48.10 points lower at 25,405.30. This signals a pause in the ongoing bullish trend, with emerging signs of short-term fatigue.
On the weekly chart, the index remains above key consolidation zones, thereby preserving the broader uptrend. However, on the daily chart, momentum has softened, hinting at possible sideways consolidation or a minor pullback in the near term. Bollinger Bands remain moderately expanded, with price action nearing the mid-band—indicating range-bound movement with a neutral-to-cautious bias.
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Technically, Nifty remains above key moving averages, thereby holding its medium-term bullish structure. On the daily timeframe, the index is trading above the 20-day simple moving average (25,142) and 40-day exponential moving average (24,886).
On the hourly chart, Nifty is now trading below the 20-hour moving average (25,494) and also just under the 40-hour EMA (25,447), pointing to narrowing range activity and growing near-term indecision.
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Momentum indicators reflect increasing divergence. The hourly MACD has slipped into negative territory at –6, while RSI on the hourly chart has declined to 40, reflecting clear loss of short-term strength. On the daily chart, however, RSI remains relatively healthy at 59 and MACD is still constructive at 220, both of which suggest the broader trend remains intact, though near-term momentum has tapered off.
Option data offers a mixed but intriguing picture. The total Call OI stands at 18.88 crore while Put OI is at 14.02 crore, leading to a net OI difference of –4.86 crore, signaling bearish positioning overall. However, a deeper look at the change in OI shows that Put OI increased by 1.14 crore contracts, while Call OI declined by 1.76 crore, resulting in a net change of +2.89 crore in favor of puts. This flips the intraday OI trend to bullish, indicating fresh put writing and a potential defensive base being formed at current levels.
From a strike positioning standpoint, the highest Call OI and the highest Call OI addition are both at 25,400, marking that zone as immediate resistance. On the Put side, both the maximum OI and maximum addition are also centered at 25,400, establishing it as a key near-term support level and inflection point.
Volatility remains low, with India VIX easing by 0.48% to 12.38, indicating continued investor comfort and low demand for protective hedges. Market breadth was not provided but is assumed to be neutral to mildly negative, in line with price softness and the cooling of intraday indicators.
In summary, the Nifty’s trend remains structurally positive over the medium term, but signs of near-term exhaustion and indecision are increasing. Key support lies at 25,400, with stronger downside cushion around 25,100. Resistance is likely around 25,650, with a broader ceiling still intact at 26,000. As long as Nifty holds above 25,400, intraday dips could still see tactical buying interest, but traders should stay alert to a potential range-bound phase and further loss of momentum in the absence of fresh triggers.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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